Markets vs the Economy: The Big Disconnect

In March, governments across the world scrambled to contain COVID-19 by imposing draconian restrictions on activity.  As offices, shops, roads and rails emptied out, vast swathes of the economy were mothballed.  Over the next six months, we witnessed both the sharpest contraction and the fastest rebound on record, driven entirely by governments’ decisions to restrict … Continue reading “Markets vs the Economy: The Big Disconnect”

Biden presidency could trigger global reallocation to Asia

Less confrontational style likely to lower headline risk and may drive global investors to refocus on the fundamental strengths of Asia’s economies and financial markets. Asian financial markets could reap the benefits if US president-elect Joe Biden proves to be more conventional than his predecessor in the White House, potentially triggering a reallocation of global … Continue reading “Biden presidency could trigger global reallocation to Asia”

The four “M”s: why the 21st century belongs to Asia

For a look into the future of the global economy, and where the power is shifting, consider technology developments in both China and India. In a mere decade, China’s e-commerce market has grown from less than 1% of global sales, into the world’s largest market in 2016, representing more than 40% of transactions by value. … Continue reading “The four “M”s: why the 21st century belongs to Asia”

What a difference a vaccine makes

The announcement that a vaccine might be available before the end of the month that works and is safe changed everything – and nothing.  The optimists in markets decided that the news would be confirmed and get better. They think the vaccine they will complete its trials, it will pass its safety test – and … Continue reading “What a difference a vaccine makes”

Three reasons why I’m optimistic on Japanese equities

Investors are overlooking a number of structural shifts that could help improve returns in Japan. When Japan has hit the headlines this year, it’s largely been for short-term factors. A change of prime minster, the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics and a relatively successful handling of the Covid-19 crisis are all noteworthy. But there’s a … Continue reading “Three reasons why I’m optimistic on Japanese equities”

What President Biden will mean for markets

Although recounts and legal challenges relating to the election need to be resolved, markets are moving on to considering what a Biden Presidency will mean. The media have decided Joe Biden will be the next President of the USA. Three states still need to complete their counts. In Georgia, there is likely to be a … Continue reading “What President Biden will mean for markets”

The COVID crisis – from risk to opportunity

As recessions go, Covid was an unusually deep one, with many advanced and emerging economies contracting by well over 10% from peak to trough and a few by closer to 20%. However, it was also unusually brief, with the period of contraction lasting for only 1-3 months in most countries, as well as atypically strong; … Continue reading “The COVID crisis – from risk to opportunity”

Looking back at the markets through October

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review The “second wave” breaks Share prices fell heavily around the world during October as Covid-19 infection rates continued to rise. Governments intensified their lockdown measures, triggering concerns over prospects for economic recovery. “In the UK, rising infection rates led the Government … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through October”

Debts, deficits and stimulus

We have just witnessed the Japanification of world finance as central bank attempt to counteract measures to stop Covid-19. How will this all end? Never before in human history has so much extra money been created by central banks and thrown at a deep recession. Never have governments pledged to borrow so much as they … Continue reading “Debts, deficits and stimulus”

Commercial Property Market Review – October 2020

Our monthly property market review is intended to provide background to recent developments in commercial property markets, as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future. Google commits to London office space Although the multinational US tech giant has informed its 4,500 staff in the UK they … Continue reading “Commercial Property Market Review – October 2020”

The EU gets serious about net zero

The Green revolution is wide-ranging and will have a huge impact on all our lives and investments. The European Council was advised by the Commission on Thursday night last week that it needed to up its game and go for a much higher target of carbon dioxide reduction by 2030. The Commission proposes a 55% … Continue reading “The EU gets serious about net zero”

Fed repression could turn to Fed regret

At its latest policy meeting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled that interest rates would be close to zero for the next three years as it aimed to hit its new objective of a 2% average inflation target and maximum employment. The central bank’s economic projections show that it intends to run the economy “hot” … Continue reading “Fed repression could turn to Fed regret”

ESG investing more important than ever

Many investors are interested in the impact of their investments on the world around them, as well as in the financial performance of the companies in which they invest. Next year, the investment industry in the European Union (EU) will be under a regulatory requirement to take Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) matters into account … Continue reading “ESG investing more important than ever”

The US election – just political noise?

The weakness in US equity markets in September appeared to come as a surprise to many investors, despite history pointing to this being seasonally quite typical. After such a strong and persistent rally since the Covid-19 lows of March, profit taking and market consolidation should be seen as a positive rather than a negative. However, … Continue reading “The US election – just political noise?”

Looking back at the markets through September

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Rising infection levels knock sentiment Share prices generally fell during September amid concerns over rising infection levels and their potential impact on economic activity. Investors’ worries were compounded by doubts over Brexit negotiations, continuing friction between the US and China over … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through September”