The £19k cost of trying to time the market

“Buy low, sell high” – that’s every investor’s goal. However, it’s easier said than done. Especially if you’re trying to time the market, which is notoriously difficult, if not impossible. It can also be costly. Our research shows just how costly it can be when you get the timing wrong. Time in the market – … Continue reading “The £19k cost of trying to time the market”

Big troubles for China

The Chinese government is facing pressures on a number of fronts. Its rulers may be about to find out that, for investors, good governance really matters. We have been negative about the prospects for the Chinese equity markets for some time. We worried about the slowdown in 2019 and the continuing hostility of the US … Continue reading “Big troubles for China”

Does the January effect really exist?

Is the first month of the year really a good time to invest?  January 2020 was either a good month or a bad month for investing. While 10 of the 23 countries in the MSCI World index of global developed markets generated a positive return, more than half lost money. Returns varied between +6.1% (Portugal) … Continue reading “Does the January effect really exist?”

Brexit: what’s next? The crunch dates ahead and what investors expect

“Brexit day” is nearly upon us, but the saga is far from over. We look at the key dates to come and what investors think will be the outcome. The UK voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52% to 48% in a referendum held on 23 June 2016. Since then, the … Continue reading “Brexit: what’s next? The crunch dates ahead and what investors expect”

The US-EU economic battle

Donald Trump spoke out at Davos, condemning the people he called the “perennial prophets of doom” for forecasting climate and other disasters. He said they “are the heirs of yesterday’s foolish fortune tellers. They want us to do badly”. He did not name the EU or individual European countries, but the implication was clear. His … Continue reading “The US-EU economic battle”

Could the coronavirus derail the global recovery?

China is acting fast to contain the spread of coronavirus but the risk of economic disruption is high.  Concerns over the spread of the coronavirus are escalating as the death toll has jumped to 81 with 2,744 confirmed cases worldwide (as at 11:00 GMT, 27 January). Travel restrictions on about 40 million people around Wuhan, … Continue reading “Could the coronavirus derail the global recovery?”

Markets are due a pause for breath

Shares continue to rocket, with equity market gains in 2020 impressive. But can this performance continue?  After the party comes the hangover. The risk-on rally in equities that started at the end of September looks overdue for a pause – and any correction following the recent melt-up would be pretty healthy. For investors becoming concerned … Continue reading “Markets are due a pause for breath”

Beyond 2020 – the age of the responsible investor

As we look to the debates and discussions at the World Economic Forum, it’s clear that we need to take stock of what is becoming an increasingly divisive world. We all have a ‘not-to-be-missed’ opportunity to refresh and reinvigorate the mutual benefits between businesses, government and people that are central to a well-functioning capitalist economy. … Continue reading “Beyond 2020 – the age of the responsible investor”

How good is the US-China trade deal?

When the world’s two largest economies and powers sit down to talk, the world waits to learn what they have agreed. The document signed by the US and China this week is an unusual international agreement, as it has no reference to independent arbitration and little external reference to world bodies, mentioning the IMF on … Continue reading “How good is the US-China trade deal?”

Looking back at the markets through December

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Double-digit gains in 2019 Despite a year that was filled with political and social upheaval – from the trade war between the US and China, through Brexit, to the civil unrest in Hong Kong – many world markets achieved double-digit gains … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through December”

Surprises in European equities

Why have European equities performed so well in 2019 and what are the prospects for 2020? For much of 2019, European equities were an unloved asset class, shunned by investors. At first sight, this was understandable – the region is growing only slowly, wracked by political tensions and wrestling with headwinds in vital sectors such as … Continue reading “Surprises in European equities”

The biggest victim of US tariffs in 2020 could be the EU

The tariff battle between Washington and Beijing is far from over, but the biggest battle for US trade hawks over the next 12 months is likely to be with Europe. The global trade slowdown has already hit the European economy hard. Brussels has been forced to cut its growth forecasts for the eurozone to its … Continue reading “The biggest victim of US tariffs in 2020 could be the EU”

UK election: what does the result mean for the economy and investors?

Boris Johnson has been confirmed as prime minister after the Conservative party made sweeping gains. The Conservative majority government has three key implications for Brexit, which is the most pressing issue for the UK economy. First, it all but guarantees that the UK will leave the European Union (EU). This election was the last barrier … Continue reading “UK election: what does the result mean for the economy and investors?”

Looking back at Global markets in November

Global Market Review Brexit takes a back seat Although politics continued to dominate newsflow and sentiment in the UK during November, Brexit was superseded by the General Election as the focal point. As the different parties set out their manifestos, Brexit took a back seat as the focus of the different party leaders shifted to … Continue reading “Looking back at Global markets in November”

Don’t lose your investment marbles in emerging markets

If one of your investments jumped 3,800% in less than a year how happy would you be? Ecstatic, probably. Now imagine how you would feel if 98% of these gains evaporated within a short few minutes. Utterly terrible, I’m sure. Well, that’s exactly what happened to shareholders in Hong Kong listed ArtGo last month  – … Continue reading “Don’t lose your investment marbles in emerging markets”