US Senate reaches agreement to a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package

As expected, the US Senate reached agreement between the parties to a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package yesterday, which gave the markets a big boost. Democrats allowed substantial funds to be available for business through a $500bn fund for industries, cities and states, with a $367bn loan programme for small business. They also accepted the … Continue reading “US Senate reaches agreement to a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package”

Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession

The coronavirus is having a severe effect on global economic activity and amidst considerable uncertainty we have attempted to gauge the impact and updated our forecasts. We now expect to see the world economy contract this year by 3.1%, before rebounding by 7.2% in 2021. The forecast incorporates a severe recession in the first half … Continue reading “Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession”

Covid-19: Three economic scenarios

Markets are governed by the duration and impact of the many measures being taken to limit and reduce the number of people contracting the COVID-19 virus. This was the week when the western advanced world changed dramatically, with the governments deciding to ban or advise against all events, tourism, entertainment and hospitality outside the home. … Continue reading “Covid-19: Three economic scenarios”

Panic-selling creates opportunities in Europe

The coronavirus situation is developing rapidly. Italy is in lockdown, confirmed cases are rising across the rest of Europe and the US, and there is a huge global effort to contain the virus. On Thursday last week, European shares suffered their biggest one-day plunge since 1987. Panic appears to have gripped markets. However, as with … Continue reading “Panic-selling creates opportunities in Europe”

Looking back at the markets through February

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Investors take fright as coronavirus takes hold As the spread of coronavirus gathered pace across the world during February, investors became increasingly concerned that the economic impact could trigger a global recession.  “Central banks are coming under pressure to respond to … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through February”

How should investors act in a crisis?

With markets reeling from the effects of coronavirus, Schroders’ Group CIO highlights what investors should focus on. Coronavirus is the latest threat to market harmony that once again poses a timeless question: how should investors act in a crisis? Whether you’re a fund manager, responsible for billions of pounds of other people’s money, or an … Continue reading “How should investors act in a crisis?”

International trade winds and stock markets

If the coronavirus situation escalates, world trade is in for a major supply shock that will damage company earnings and productivity. The outlook remains unclear. There were attacks on the international order of promoting free trade before the coronavirus hit. Many emerging countries refused to make rapid progress to lower tariffs and fewer barriers to … Continue reading “International trade winds and stock markets”

Coronavirus: assessing the risks

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that emerged in China’s Hubei province late last year has now spread to more than 50 countries. The outbreaks in Japan, Korea and Italy are particularly serious, but the number of cases is climbing rapidly elsewhere. Initially, the stock market’s reaction to the virus was muted. Most investors appeared to believe … Continue reading “Coronavirus: assessing the risks”

3 reasons why coronavirus should not change your long term investment strategy

Markets last week finally woke up to the negative implications of the growing global spread of coronavirus. Initial views that it was largely a Chinese problem, with isolated cases elsewhere in Asia and the Middle East, left investors indifferent and markets held relatively firm, despite the daily rise in number of reported infections and deaths. … Continue reading “3 reasons why coronavirus should not change your long term investment strategy”

The virus sickens stock markets

As we feared last week, the reality of Chinese closures, damaged supply chains and worried consumers has hit world equity markets. The wall of money central banks have been injecting led people to anticipate a short, sharp decline and recovery which they could look through whilst driving shares higher. Suddenly, investors show concern that the … Continue reading “The virus sickens stock markets”

Why is the current market vulnerable?

Sharp falls in equity markets are never pleasant for investors, but the recent market weakness needs to be viewed in context of last year’s market environment, where we saw one of the strongest rallies in global equities in recent times. To illustrate, the US stock market (S&P 500) returned 31.5% in US Dollar terms last … Continue reading “Why is the current market vulnerable?”

Private markets in a new world

The world is rapidly changing. Three forces will shape the future: technology, demographics and sustainability. The cost of such a transformation will not be cheap. However, private markets are uniquely placed to help fund and build this new world – creating numerous opportunities for investors. Technology has transformed our lives. Thanks to mobile devices and … Continue reading “Private markets in a new world”

How the FTSE 100 returned 122% in 20 years but barely moved

The story of the FTSE 100 over the last 20 years is a compelling argument for reinvesting dividends.   As revellers saw in the new millennium on New Year’s Eve 1999, the FTSE 100 closed at a then-record high of 6930. The stock market was in the grip of the “dotcom” boom. They were good … Continue reading “How the FTSE 100 returned 122% in 20 years but barely moved”

The biggest winner from coronavirus is Donald Trump

It should come as a surprise to no-one that the figures from China about coronavirus infections and deaths have been massaged to make them look better. As the crisis in Xi Jinping’s government from his mishandling of the situation mounts, the biggest winner is now becoming clear. It’s looking more and more likely that Donald … Continue reading “The biggest winner from coronavirus is Donald Trump”

A wall of money battles the virus

Some investment commentators had been relaxed about the Chinese virus, reading into the official numbers the idea that new cases had peaked. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China are all running supportive policies, putting money into markets in various ways. As this money helped drive … Continue reading “A wall of money battles the virus”