Cyber-risk: how investors can prepare for the unpredictable

Cyber crime continues to create significant costs for companies globally, but understanding the risk means going beyond a formulaic assessment of policies.  Digital data has grown exponentially in recent years, spurred by increased penetration of mobile devices and consumption of online services. The rapid expansion in the volume of data companies store, many of which … Continue reading “Cyber-risk: how investors can prepare for the unpredictable”

Genoa tragedy sets Italy on course for EU clash

The tragic loss of lives in Genoa when a large section of an elevated motorway collapsed is one of those dreadful events that should not have happened. We all feel for the families scarred by loss. It is a big event which is having a dramatic effect on Italian politics and government. This matters at … Continue reading “Genoa tragedy sets Italy on course for EU clash”

Turkey: an idiosyncratic problem or a threat to wider emerging markets?

Turkey has seen a temporary resolution to its current crisis with the injection of $15bn of Qatari cash, but it is still in crisis. The Qatar offer, from Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, is designed to help the country ride out its currency crisis, which has seen the lira plunge. However, it is a short-term … Continue reading “Turkey: an idiosyncratic problem or a threat to wider emerging markets?”

What can we learn from the shape of the yield curve?

Surveys of investors show a distinct degree of nervousness this summer. One reason may be President Trump’s propensity for off-the-cuff Twitter activity, taking aim at Turkey, NATO, and Iran, the global trading system or any of his other enemies. Another explanation is rather more technical – prosaic, even. But it also illustrates how caution about … Continue reading “What can we learn from the shape of the yield curve?”

Turkey trouble: what’s behind it and what does it mean for emerging markets?

Turkey’s currency, the lira, has plunged 68% against the dollar since the start of 2018. Year-to-date its stock market has fallen nearly 18% and inflation hit 16% in July, more than three times the central bank’s target. Turkey’s current crisis has been a long time coming. The early warning signs were apparent in the 2013 … Continue reading “Turkey trouble: what’s behind it and what does it mean for emerging markets?”

Emerging markets: increasing or decreasing risks?

So far, 2018 has been a difficult year for emerging market (EM) assets, which in the last few months have fared significantly worse than their counterparts in developed markets. This has been due mainly to worldwide issues but also country-specific political uncertainty. Many investors are now asking if the sell-off presents a buying opportunity – … Continue reading “Emerging markets: increasing or decreasing risks?”

When you get to a trillion dollars that is serious money

The race has been on for some months to see which company can first reach a market value of $1 trillion. Apple was in the lead for most of the time, with Amazon and Alphabet in contention. Yesterday Apple hit the newsworthy level. It was a fitting achievement for a company that has come to … Continue reading “When you get to a trillion dollars that is serious money”

Brexit risk fails to deter BoE from rate hike

The Bank of England (BoE) has raised its main policy interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% – its highest level since March 2009 and the first hike above the post-financial crisis level. The Bank backed away from raising rates in February owing to a significant slowdown in growth. However, data on retail sales and production … Continue reading “Brexit risk fails to deter BoE from rate hike”

Is the trade war really all about the mid-term elections?

US President Donald Trump’s trade war could damage the global economy, but is he just playing politics? Steve Mnuchin did not hold any formal meetings with China at this weekend’s meeting of G20 finance ministers in Buenos Aires. This is despite the US Treasury Secretary indicating recently in Congress that he was prepared to reopen … Continue reading “Is the trade war really all about the mid-term elections?”

Globalisation – Nothing new under the sun

There is nothing new about geopolitics. Geography – both physical and human – has influenced politics and international relations for centuries, even millennia. But the nature of geopolitical risk has changed over time. During the Cold War, geopolitical risks for Western governments and the corporate world were focused on Moscow’s motivations and behaviour, the possibility … Continue reading “Globalisation – Nothing new under the sun”

Why is this such a worried bull market?

Normally bull markets are full of people who are optimistic. They radiate enthusiasm for economies and shares. They hunt down markets or individual stocks that look cheap compared to the rest and recommend them. They recommend simply buying the global or local market to join in a general uplift in shares they expect. Eventually you … Continue reading “Why is this such a worried bull market?”

Trade War: A game of strategy

Donald, who? In early 2016, Parmenion used the incoming US President, Donald Trump as the theme for our regional roadshows. Who was he and what were his plans? We talked about The Wall, his infrastructure plans, tax cutting ideas and the promised support for the military. We didn’t foresee the Russian investigation, high White House staff … Continue reading “Trade War: A game of strategy”

This bull market has relied on technology shares

This has been a long and unusually hesitant and worried bull market. Indeed, there have been a substantial number of sectors that have lived through their own bear markets whilst the overall indices push on to new highs. The US has outperformed the other advanced country equity markets and China easily over the twelve months, … Continue reading “This bull market has relied on technology shares”

The potential income shock awaiting pension savers

A global study of investor attitudes finds that those close to retirement expect to replace 74% of their salary when they give up work. The reality for those already retired is very different. After a lifetime of saving, investors may be in for a shock when they come to retire, the results of a global … Continue reading “The potential income shock awaiting pension savers”

Investors are hoping Trump is playing tactics

When equity markets were hitting new highs Donald Trump was taking all the credit. “The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me,” the President declared to journalists aboard Air Force One. But the problem with this attitude, as noted by Barack Obama’s former press secretary Jay Carney, is that if you … Continue reading “Investors are hoping Trump is playing tactics”