The US Presidential election remains an uncertainty for markets

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The US presidential elections take place on November 3 and Donald Trump is now closing the gap in the polls with Joe Biden. The result remains too close to call.

The US election is now Democrat candidate Joe Biden’s to lose. Donald Trump’s grand strategy has been badly damaged by the virus. His plan was to heat up the US economy, report a full term of growth, remind people of how many new jobs had been created and point to the boost in take-home pay. Real wages were rising, taxes had been cut, and many Americans were beginning to experience better times as the pandemic hit.

The decisions taken in many states to lockdown the economy to reduce the spread of the virus transformed all that overnight. Donald Trump was destined to preside over the biggest fall in US output, employment and incomes seen since the 1930s. Unemployment has surged to high levels, whilst the country struggles to get back to something like normal.

Resilient polling

You might expect in these circumstances that Mr Trump’s poll ratings would be languishing badly. Instead, he sits today around 6% behind Joe Biden. This is not that much worse than his position against Hillary Clinton for much of their campaign in 2016. He experienced something of a swing to him, as many governments did abroad as the pandemic struck. People turned to those in office and looked to them for guidance and good government. Mr Trump, like those other administrations, had the ear of the public, as they were desperate for Covid-19 news.

View Full Article – published by Charles Stanley on 12th August 2020