The question whether Democrats or Republicans will have a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate matters to markets.
According to the polls, the Presidential election is Joe Biden’s to lose. He has been comfortably ahead by around 8% in the national polls for some time. He is also ahead in most of the crucial swing states that will determine the election, based as it is on Electoral College votes state by state. The House of Representatives is likely to maintain its Democrat majority, whilst the Republicans 53-47 advantage in the Senate is at risk. 23 of their seats are up for election against only 12 Democrat seats. The Democrat seat of Alabama is thought to be vulnerable, whilst the Republicans are thought to be vulnerable in Arizona and to have six of their seats in the too close to call category in Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina. The House of Representatives currently has a Democrat majority, with 223 seats against the Republicans on 188. Current polling suggests the Democrats are safe with 24 contested seats being too close to call. If Republicans won all of those the Democrats should still be the larger party.
The betting has not been as supportive of Mr Biden as the polls. The Trump campaign is still very energetic so most commentators are reserving the possibility of a surprise Trump win despite the clear message from the polls. The Trump team point to the narrow advantage the President still has on the issue of the economy, and spend time setting out the economic successes prior to the Covid-19 lockdowns. They contrast Republican wishes to get the USA back to work quickly against their view that Democrats, in states they run, have gone in for more restrictions on enterprises. They also seek to drag the agenda onto law and order where they argue they work with the police to tackle violence and out of control protests, where the Democrats show more concern about highlighting bad policing and the rights of the protesters. Meanwhile, the Biden campaign always seeks to put the virus centre stage and plays to people who think the President has been too cavalier in his response. They also wish to major on the question of the character and conduct of the President which they regularly condemn.
View Full Article– published by Charles Stanley on 15th September 2020
— Market Briefings (@MarketBriefings) September 21, 2020