Europe: political events in Italy prelude to the eurozone’s demise?

Last night, the Italian Government was heavily defeated in a referendum over changes it had proposed to the country’s constitution. This led to the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and has thrown significant uncertainty over the country’s political future. Italy’s president has begun the process of selecting a new prime minister to form a … Continue reading “Europe: political events in Italy prelude to the eurozone’s demise?”

Can the emerging markets revival continue?

A panel of experts from Schroders reflect on the revival seen in emerging markets this year, and discuss whether it is set to continue in 2017 in the wake of the recent US presidential election result. Will the US election result hamper the emerging markets revival? Given the uncertainty over US policy under President Trump, … Continue reading “Can the emerging markets revival continue?”

Will the UK consumer keep spending?

There have been alarms put round that the UK will witness a big squeeze on real incomes, leading to a reduction in consumer demand. The argument goes that the devaluation of the pound will cause substantial price increase, which will eat into wage increases and cause a fall in real incomes and spending power. The … Continue reading “Will the UK consumer keep spending?”

Autumn statement 2016: will the sums add up?

The EU referendum result casts a long shadow over the chancellor’s 2016 Autumn Statement, resulting in a surprisingly modest downgrade to the economy’s growth prospects but a sharp worsening of its fiscal outlook. Within these tight parameters, Mr Hammond has done what he can: setting new fiscal rules, highlighting the UK’s long-term challenges, and raising … Continue reading “Autumn statement 2016: will the sums add up?”

Donald Trump and the prospects for US investment markets

Donald Trump’s victory is an event that could one day be looked back upon as a generational turning point in global politics. In this article, we take a step back from the headlines and examine how his election could affect the trends already underway in the US economy, ultimately to determine how investment markets might … Continue reading “Donald Trump and the prospects for US investment markets”

Volatile bonds: What is happening to interest rates?

This year the US, UK and German bond markets have moved together. Whatever the news, rates have followed similar trends and patterns. It is true US rates have stayed the highest of the three, and German rates by far the lowest. In each market rates fell from their highs on 1 January to reach new … Continue reading “Volatile bonds: What is happening to interest rates?”

Trump’s policies can’t stop the fastest growing economies in the world

Donald Trump is set to become the next president of the United States and the world has to grapple with the implications. Emerging economies, among the biggest beneficiaries of globalisation, are watching with trepidation as the self-styled architect of ‘Brexit-plus-plus-plus’ threatens to undermine a rules-based international system of trade and investment that took decades to … Continue reading “Trump’s policies can’t stop the fastest growing economies in the world”

Has QE failed, and if so why are markets clamouring for more?

The aim of Quantitative Easing [QE] was to support global economic growth in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and help to push GDP growth back towards its trend rate, typically around 3.2 – 3.5% for the world and 2 – 2.5% for the UK. This would allow the amount of outstanding debt to … Continue reading “Has QE failed, and if so why are markets clamouring for more?”

How investors can prepare for rising UK inflation

Various forces are conspiring to push UK inflation higher, here we discuss these and the investment implications of accelerating price rises. Given current economic headwinds, some have suggested that the era of extremely low interest rates and inflation is here to stay. However, a number of factors suggest that UK inflation is set to rise … Continue reading “How investors can prepare for rising UK inflation”

The economic effect of “Trumpism”

Trumpism is defined as: (1) the rejection of the current political establishment and the vigorous pursuit of American national interests; (2) a controversial or outrageous statement attributed to Donald Trump. On winning the US Presidential election, Trump’s victory speech confirmed that he would put America first in his policies. That pursuit of America’s interests will … Continue reading “The economic effect of “Trumpism””

Donald Trump to be president

Donald J Trump is poised to become the next President of the United States of America, one of the most controversial and divisive Presidents the country has ever had judging by recent polls. What will the consequences of this victory be? It’s incredibly difficult to know and therein lies the challenge. Candidates generally track towards … Continue reading “Donald Trump to be president”

Trump victory: after initial boost, weaker growth and higher inflation likely

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election could lead to trade wars, with tariffs likely to rise. Congratulations to Donald Trump who has defied the odds and the naysayers to become the oldest elected president of the US. This is an extraordinary achievement for a Washington outsider who had to beat 16 others for … Continue reading “Trump victory: after initial boost, weaker growth and higher inflation likely”

Historic win by Donald Trump

An assessment of the historic win by Donald Trump in the US Presidential election. It was always a possibility that Mr Trump would win the US election, despite the worries and fears of market commentators and those in the main economic institutions.  Charles Stanley took a cautious approach ahead of the event, recognising that there … Continue reading “Historic win by Donald Trump”

Donald Trump confirmed as the next US President

In this piece, we summarise how we expect Donald Trump’s election as US President to affect the international political arena, the global economy and its investment markets. Now that the dust has settled, Donald Trump has emerged victorious in the 2016 US Presidential election and is scheduled to be sworn in as President on 20 … Continue reading “Donald Trump confirmed as the next US President”