Reasons to be positive on equities

Investors are quite rightly nervous after sharp market falls in the final quarter of last year. However,  that it’s not all doom and gloom. In fact, there are reasons to be positive. Equities are discounting a recession that is unlikely to happen. Although growth is certainly slowing down, none of the world’s major countries are … Continue reading “Reasons to be positive on equities”

Is the US technology industry being defanged?

Paypal founder Peter Thiel predicted in his 2014 Wall Street Journal essay ‘Competition is for losers’ that Silicon Valley would become the centre of the global economy. He claimed that by operating under a set of rules that involve little competition or regulation, his own company, along with the likes of Facebook, Amazon and Google … Continue reading “Is the US technology industry being defanged?”

Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war

Optimism that the trade war that has ravaged global markets could be resolved soon is mounting. China’s Ministry of Commerce said that last week’s discussions with US representatives were extensive and had established a foundation for the resolution of each country’s concerns. In fact, it appears that things are moving into place for Donald Trump … Continue reading “Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war”

How trade wars have affected emerging market returns

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a measure of emerging markets (EM) equities, was down 14.3% in 2018, but this masked a considerable dispersion of returns, particularly in US dollar terms. Turkey was the year’s worst performer, thanks to a collapse in the lira, with equities losing investors 57.6% in dollar terms. The best performing major … Continue reading “How trade wars have affected emerging market returns”

China tries to balance its economy

The Chinese bear market in shares has lasted since the peaks reached in the summer of 2015. The index of share prices for the Shanghai market has halved since June 2015. Then excessive exuberance tempted many domestic buyers into the stock market. A substantial credit expansion allowed people to buy shares on borrowed money. When … Continue reading “China tries to balance its economy”

29 reasons not to invest in the stock market

Wars, disasters, economic strife and political instability have been persistent themes over the last three decades and they can affect people’s attitude towards investing. In many cases they make an already tough decision to part with your money and invest even harder, leading some to not invest at all. Behavioural scientists have a name for … Continue reading “29 reasons not to invest in the stock market”

China and Taiwan tensions build

President Xi Jinping’s statement that Taiwan is properly part of China and will be fully integrated one day is not new policy. Nonetheless it seemed to upset the Hong Kong market, and made investors wonder whether there was to be a new tougher phase in China’s relations with the very successful island economy of Taiwan. … Continue reading “China and Taiwan tensions build”

2018: A year to forget

2018 will be a year that many investors would rather forget. A lucky few will still be looking for an overall gain for the year, but the past few months have proved extremely uncomfortable. What have been the highs and lows of the year?  Research by Willis Owen shows that eight sectors delivered a positive … Continue reading “2018: A year to forget”

How the Brexit delay has moved markets – and what it means for the economy

As Theresa May meets European leaders seeking a better Brexit deal, the UK economy heads for a period of heightened uncertainty and stagflation. Markets faced further uncertainty after the Prime Minister Theresa May began a series of European meetings in the hope of securing an improved deal on Brexit. However, Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the … Continue reading “How the Brexit delay has moved markets – and what it means for the economy”

G20 stare down does not de-escalate tensions

It would be easy to see last weekend’s G20 meeting a heralding a thaw in the US-China trade war. But it hasn’t. There are some positives. It looks increasingly likely that the US will not put in place a fresh 10-25% tariff hike in January on $250bn of Chinese exports, as most had thought. It … Continue reading “G20 stare down does not de-escalate tensions”

Trade deal leaves considerable uncertainty

President Trump decided to sit down with President Xi after all at the G20 Summit in Argentina. He had blown hot and cold about whether it was worthwhile to do so, and had threatened to carry on with his increases in tariffs on Chinese goods ahead of the meeting. Markets should be growing used to … Continue reading “Trade deal leaves considerable uncertainty”

Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead

It seems clear to us that the world investors have got used to over the last few years is very different to the one we need to get accustomed to in the years to come. We have identified a number of economic forces and disruptive forces we think will shape the investment landscape ahead of … Continue reading “Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead”

A slowdown in the world economy worries markets

Japanese interest rates are negative, Euro-area rates are still at zero, the UK official short-rate is at 0.75% and in the US at 2.25%. The Japanese are still running a quantitative easing programme, printing money to buy up state debt, and the Euro-area is doing a little bit more of the same until the end … Continue reading “A slowdown in the world economy worries markets”

Fear not – volatility is normal

After the long period of rather calm markets in 2016-17, we predicted that from 2018 onwards, we would see a return towards more normal levels of market volatility. Swings up and down in share prices – even big moves – are normal behaviour for markets. The upside from investing in equity markets is the potential … Continue reading “Fear not – volatility is normal”