Riding the central bank stimulus

The major issues today are how fast the recovery will be, how widespread will it be, and how much permanent damage will remain. Bulls in the stock market are excited by the recovery cycle. It now looks as if all the major economies have passed the worst of their troughs in output and incomes brought … Continue reading “Riding the central bank stimulus”

Looking back at the markets through July

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review  The other “R” number … Recession Early in July, investors were buoyed by news of progress in the development of coronavirus vaccines. However, as the month continued, optimism was tempered by a surge in infection rates in countries including the US, … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through July”

The US Presidential election remains an uncertainty for markets

The US presidential elections take place on November 3 and Donald Trump is now closing the gap in the polls with Joe Biden. The result remains too close to call. The US election is now Democrat candidate Joe Biden’s to lose. Donald Trump’s grand strategy has been badly damaged by the virus. His plan was … Continue reading “The US Presidential election remains an uncertainty for markets”

What could a Biden presidency mean for climate change investing?

Joe Biden in the White House, and potentially Democrats in control of the Senate too, could turbo-charge climate change as an investment theme. The US response to Covid-19 looks set to be the dominant election issue as we head towards the November polls. Myriad other issues also compete for voters’ attention, and climate change often … Continue reading “What could a Biden presidency mean for climate change investing?”

The performance of world markets in the pandemic

Equity-market performance around the world has diverged in response to government stimulus measures and those exposed to the digital revolution. At the end of July, the S&P 500 index of larger US company shares pushed ahead of its starting level this year. Nasdaq powered on, forming more new highs. It has now delivered a 22% … Continue reading “The performance of world markets in the pandemic”

Investors expect even higher returns from the stock market in years ahead – despite coronavirus shock

Savers predict annual returns of 10.9% from their stock market investments, even as Covid-19 halted the longest economic expansion on record and plunged the world into deep recession. Investors continue to hope for double-digit yearly total returns from their portfolios, despite the huge blow inflicted on the global economy by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to … Continue reading “Investors expect even higher returns from the stock market in years ahead – despite coronavirus shock”

Brazil: will this emerging market ever emerge?

Will Brazil be an emerging market that never quite emerges? In the 2000s, the Latin American giant was making impressive progress in converging with developed economies. But since the global financial crisis of 2008, it has surrendered most of these gains. Today, the Covid-19 pandemic is hitting the country hard, threatening not only the health … Continue reading “Brazil: will this emerging market ever emerge?”

The investment trends accelerated by Covid-19

The Covid-19 outbreak is likely to change the way we think, work and live. It is accelerating trends that were already in place and changing people’s behaviour. All of this has implications for investors. Here we look at some of the long-term consequence of the ongoing pandemic. Creating jobs by de-carbonising the economy Creating jobs … Continue reading “The investment trends accelerated by Covid-19”

Five key investor questions on China answered

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, our team considers the relative prospects for China’s economic recovery and stock market resurgence. What the pandemic has highlighted is large differences in state capacity to manage this crisis. Will China experience a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery? We are still at the beginning of an enormous economic and social repair job. Governments … Continue reading “Five key investor questions on China answered”

Government borrowing is large but not yet a problem

Advanced country governments have found it easy to increase their borrowings at very low interest rates, but they can’t make a habit of borrowing such large sums. Over the last three months, most governments have greatly increased their spending and suffered a major decline in tax revenues. There was always going to be a large … Continue reading “Government borrowing is large but not yet a problem”

The uncomfortable truth about climate change and investment returns

Investors can no longer ignore climate change. Long gone are the days of debating whether it even exists; climate change is here and it’s going to have a major impact on the way we live. It’s also already having a major impact on how we invest. That’s why by the end of 2020 we will … Continue reading “The uncomfortable truth about climate change and investment returns”

The end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end

It is becoming clear that the global recovery from the COVID-19 recession began in May. Widespread, albeit still incomplete, success in slowing the spread of the virus has prompted most governments to begin easing lockdowns over recent weeks, following China’s earlier lead. That has led to broad-based improvements in business and consumer confidence, alternative indicators … Continue reading “The end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end”

Can international tourism ever recover?

Travel restrictions are slowly being lifted, but most people are more likely to be jumping into their cars to go on holiday than onto an aircraft. So, can international tourism ever recover? And might the slump force some countries to reorder their economic priorities? Lessons from previous crises The UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organization) … Continue reading “Can international tourism ever recover?”

Central banks continue to prop-up markets

The tsunami of money has been unprecedented and is the main reason equity markets have performed as they have. The stimulus measures have been at their largest in the US, where money growth has shot up to 25% for the year. In the Eurozone and the UK, it is a lively but more modest 10%. … Continue reading “Central banks continue to prop-up markets”

How smart manufacturing could lead to an industrial renaissance

The history of industry is one of constant innovation. The industrial revolution that began in the late 1700s was enabled by the advent of water and steam power. This allowed the start of mechanical production. Then, electric power and assembly lines heralded the era of mass production in the early 20th century. The late 20th … Continue reading “How smart manufacturing could lead to an industrial renaissance”