European equities – interesting times

“There is a Chinese curse which says ‘May he live in interesting times.’ Like it or not, we live in interesting times.” Robert F. Kennedy’s 1966 quote sums up what it has been like to be a European equity investor since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016. While politicians have … Continue reading “European equities – interesting times”

The US will be reluctant to go to war with Iran

The media are full of stories of growing tension between Iran and the US. The attack on two tankers in the Gulf understandably moved oil prices up whilst unsettling investors about possible future escalation of hostilities. The US main allies in the region would like to get the USA more involved in their proxy wars … Continue reading “The US will be reluctant to go to war with Iran”

Investors should note the approaching tipping point for renewable energy

The efforts to mitigate climate change may be approaching a tipping point. The wave of support for Green Party candidates in last month’s elections for the European Parliament prompted a plethora of articles highlighting the cost of dealing with climate change and the regressive implications for those on low incomes. Subsidies to promote renewable energy … Continue reading “Investors should note the approaching tipping point for renewable energy”

Mr Trump’s torrent of trade tweets

Financial markets are being buffeted by President Trump’s tweets on trade. What are the short and long-term implications of this new style of policy making in the US? Tactical tweeting Since the summer of last year, investors have had to look at Twitter far more often. President Trump has used this form of social media … Continue reading “Mr Trump’s torrent of trade tweets”

Looking back at the markets through May

Although the US and China had been widely expected to agree a trade deal, US President Donald Trump instead confounded hopes by announcing that tariffs on over US$200 billion-worth of imports from China would increase from 10% to 25%.  In response, China raised tariffs on US$60 billion-worth of US goods. Share prices fell heavily in … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through May”

Will a Chinese boycott really hurt the US?

As the US trade war with China accelerates, Beijing is preparing to use one of its most effective weapons – people power. There is likely to be boycotts ahead. The US trade dispute with China escalated this week, after Beijing deployed a powerful weapon in its armoury – people power. The Chinese government warned its … Continue reading “Will a Chinese boycott really hurt the US?”

Why the world economy is like a wobbly bike

The world economy increasingly resembles an unstable bicycle that can be tipped over by the slightest bump in the road. Three months ago we said “the easing in US-China trade tensions, more flexible central banks and the benefits of lower oil prices should stabilise activity later this year and support an upgrade in our global … Continue reading “Why the world economy is like a wobbly bike”

Whatever it takes…to raise inflation

The European Central Bank has consistently failed to meet its inflation target in the seven years since the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Nor has the market any faith that it might do so in future. With the European Union (EU) elections out of the way, the horse-trading over a host of top EU jobs will … Continue reading “Whatever it takes…to raise inflation”

May resignation raises UK recession risk

Prime Minister Theresa May has now announced her resignation, stepping down on 7 June. This will trigger a Conservative Party leadership contest, the winner of which would also become prime minister. May’s resignation follows the end of Brexit talks with the opposition Labour Party, which officially concluded without agreement. At this stage, bookmakers have the … Continue reading “May resignation raises UK recession risk”

Something has changed in the Trump administration

Donald Trump has put power back into his tweets. His recent announcements on technology exports and trade have sent markets lower. The tweets are backed by Executive Orders and by follow-up action from the relevant departments of government. It reminds us that something has changed in the Trump administration. The President has found a team … Continue reading “Something has changed in the Trump administration”

Creating a virtuous circle in residential investing

How do we balance effective residential investing with being sensitive to tenants’ needs and to climate change? With the right approach, they can be far more harmonious that you might think. In fact, we would argue that they are intrinsically linked. Using change as a lens We have identified four global forces for change that … Continue reading “Creating a virtuous circle in residential investing”

Three reasons why the UK stock market looks compelling

Whatever the opposite of a sweet spot is, many investors think UK equities are currently in one. With Brexit still unresolved, some have put the market in the “too difficult” basket. While it is understandable to fear uncertainty, as stock pickers we embrace the mis-priced opportunities created by it. The global nature of the market … Continue reading “Three reasons why the UK stock market looks compelling”

Waiting for a new interest rate policy

The Federal Reserve Board is re-thinking its whole approach to setting interest rates and controlling credit and money. Its bruising encounters with a falling stock market and an angry President in the final quarter of 2018 left it at a loss to explain why it needed to take action to ease monetary conditions. It had … Continue reading “Waiting for a new interest rate policy”

Looking back at the markets through April

Brextension Having delayed Brexit from 29 March to 12 April, Prime Minister Theresa May agreed a new Brexit deadline of 31 October with EU leaders. As well as drawing out the uncertainty that has intensified over the last few months, this decision also means that the UK will have to take part in European Parliamentary … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April”