China offers a glimpse of life after lockdown

China delivered a startling reminder of what a post-pandemic world might look like, setting a new record high for domestic tourism during its Labour Day holiday this month. The national May 1-5 break saw 230 million Chinese citizens make in-country trips1 – the equivalent of more than half of the entire European Union on the … Continue reading “China offers a glimpse of life after lockdown”

UK mid-caps – far from middle of the road

No matter what their size, the past few years have been tricky for UK companies. First Brexit, then the Covid-19 pandemic – two headwinds that saw many investors leave the UK equities market for more certain climes. Now though, with an acceptable Brexit conclusion and a potential vaccine-led recovery, we believe UK equities, mid-caps in … Continue reading “UK mid-caps – far from middle of the road”

Steering a course to UK equities for the opportunities ahead

It’s not an easy time to be an investor. 2020 was a rollercoaster year whatever asset class you invested in. Even looking ahead, it’s understandable that investors may be nervous about making any big asset allocation decisions at the moment. However, at times of uncertainty and change, some of the best investment opportunities can reveal … Continue reading “Steering a course to UK equities for the opportunities ahead”

Back with a bang: US fourth-quarter earnings turn positive

The big news from the fourth-quarter reporting season is that earnings growth is back. Consensus expectations for were for further contractions in corporate earnings, but instead we’ve seen an expansion – in the US at least. Now that most of S&P 500’s constituents have reported, some 83% have surprised positively – well above the historical … Continue reading “Back with a bang: US fourth-quarter earnings turn positive”

Going Green In China

China needs massive investment to meet its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Estimates range from some US$6 trillion up to US$16 trillion. President Xi Jinping announced his country’s historic goal via a video link at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last September1. Carbon neutrality means China would have to remove … Continue reading “Going Green In China”

What the Biden presidency means for emerging market debt

The unpredictable Donald Trump presidency was perhaps suitably signed off by the recent shocking invasion of Capitol Hill by some of his supporters. Neither this, nor policy annunciation via Twitter (frequently in the middle of the night), could scarcely have been imagined before Trump. Perhaps the single most visible change of the new Biden presidency … Continue reading “What the Biden presidency means for emerging market debt”

Treasuring trade

Global trade is good for everyone but it’s taken a back seat in the past year. Can we look forward to its renaissance in 2021 and beyond? One of the few topics on which economists agree is the benefits of global trade. Among the first lessons taught to economics students is the Ricardian theory of … Continue reading “Treasuring trade”

Biden presidency could trigger global reallocation to Asia

Less confrontational style likely to lower headline risk and may drive global investors to refocus on the fundamental strengths of Asia’s economies and financial markets. Asian financial markets could reap the benefits if US president-elect Joe Biden proves to be more conventional than his predecessor in the White House, potentially triggering a reallocation of global … Continue reading “Biden presidency could trigger global reallocation to Asia”

The COVID crisis – from risk to opportunity

As recessions go, Covid was an unusually deep one, with many advanced and emerging economies contracting by well over 10% from peak to trough and a few by closer to 20%. However, it was also unusually brief, with the period of contraction lasting for only 1-3 months in most countries, as well as atypically strong; … Continue reading “The COVID crisis – from risk to opportunity”

Back on the Brexit rollercoaster: buckle up for a bumpy ride

What’s happening with Brexit? The UK and European Union (EU) resumed Brexit negotiations over the summer but made limited progress. The political drama and posturing that accompanied the proceedings look certain to persist in the coming weeks. It appears the UK intends proposing domestic laws to weaken its Withdrawal Agreement commitments on the border between … Continue reading “Back on the Brexit rollercoaster: buckle up for a bumpy ride”

A deepening divide: emerging markets and the second-quarter earnings season

Emerging markets (EMs) are often discussed as if they were somehow homogenous. That, however, is misleading. The differences between the individual markets included in EM indices are profound. The Covid-19 crisis has exposed these fundamental differences – especially those between emerging Asian economies and other parts of the developing world. And EM companies’ second-quarter earnings … Continue reading “A deepening divide: emerging markets and the second-quarter earnings season”

Brazil: will this emerging market ever emerge?

Will Brazil be an emerging market that never quite emerges? In the 2000s, the Latin American giant was making impressive progress in converging with developed economies. But since the global financial crisis of 2008, it has surrendered most of these gains. Today, the Covid-19 pandemic is hitting the country hard, threatening not only the health … Continue reading “Brazil: will this emerging market ever emerge?”

Five key investor questions on China answered

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, our team considers the relative prospects for China’s economic recovery and stock market resurgence. What the pandemic has highlighted is large differences in state capacity to manage this crisis. Will China experience a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery? We are still at the beginning of an enormous economic and social repair job. Governments … Continue reading “Five key investor questions on China answered”

The end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end

It is becoming clear that the global recovery from the COVID-19 recession began in May. Widespread, albeit still incomplete, success in slowing the spread of the virus has prompted most governments to begin easing lockdowns over recent weeks, following China’s earlier lead. That has led to broad-based improvements in business and consumer confidence, alternative indicators … Continue reading “The end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end”

Asia after the storm

The world has been battered by the coronavirus pandemic this year. Most economic activity was suspended as many of us spent our days confined to our homes. The Asia Pacific region will not escape unscathed. Decades of globalisation ensures that we are all in this together, regardless of where one lives, and whether one likes … Continue reading “Asia after the storm”