Looking back at the markets through May

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Pandemic continued to dominate markets The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through May”

Brexit: what’s next? The crunch dates ahead and what investors expect

“Brexit day” is nearly upon us, but the saga is far from over. We look at the key dates to come and what investors think will be the outcome. The UK voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52% to 48% in a referendum held on 23 June 2016. Since then, the … Continue reading “Brexit: what’s next? The crunch dates ahead and what investors expect”

UK election: what does the result mean for the economy and investors?

Boris Johnson has been confirmed as prime minister after the Conservative party made sweeping gains. The Conservative majority government has three key implications for Brexit, which is the most pressing issue for the UK economy. First, it all but guarantees that the UK will leave the European Union (EU). This election was the last barrier … Continue reading “UK election: what does the result mean for the economy and investors?”

Bank of England takes dovish turn, but for how long?

The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates at 0.75% as expected. However, there was a surprise as two members of the monetary policy committee voted to cut rates. The more dovish1 vote (7-2 rather than the widely expected 9-0) came alongside a downgrade to the bank’s global growth assumptions. Weaker UK growth is also … Continue reading “Bank of England takes dovish turn, but for how long?”

Looking back at the markets through August

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Parliament’s suspension creates controversy The prospect of a no-deal Brexit crept closer during August as Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that Parliament would be suspended shortly after MPs return from their summer break until the Queen’s Speech on 14 October. The … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through August”

Illiquidity isn’t a dirty word…

In the past month, tales of unexpected illiquidity have hit the headlines, and investors are understandably concerned. With Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, declaring investment funds have been “built on a lie”, and the media revealing that the FCA was aware of breaches at the now suspended Woodford fund for over a … Continue reading “Illiquidity isn’t a dirty word…”

Tough times for the UK may force rate cut

The UK economy is struggling to stay above water. Brexit uncertainty has hit confidence, causing many companies to postpone or cancel investment projects. Even households are now cutting back. According to the latest survey from the British Retail Consortium, average sales growth weakened to just 0.6% in the 12 months to June, which is the … Continue reading “Tough times for the UK may force rate cut”

May resignation raises UK recession risk

Prime Minister Theresa May has now announced her resignation, stepping down on 7 June. This will trigger a Conservative Party leadership contest, the winner of which would also become prime minister. May’s resignation follows the end of Brexit talks with the opposition Labour Party, which officially concluded without agreement. At this stage, bookmakers have the … Continue reading “May resignation raises UK recession risk”

Why a pick-up in UK growth may prove deceptive

Recent economic data from the UK has improved but signs are that this is due to stockpiling ahead of worries over potential Brexit disruption. Brexit continues to dominate news and politics in the UK. Even lowly economists pray for a break from the mundane gridlock and circular arguments. Now that the Brexit deadline has been … Continue reading “Why a pick-up in UK growth may prove deceptive”

Is the UK stuck in Brexit limbo?

The UK has been granted its second extension to the Article 50 deadline, averting a no-deal Brexit that would have happened on 12 April. The UK now has until 31 October to ratify the current Withdrawal Agreement, although there was some disagreement amongst other EU members as to how much longer the UK should be … Continue reading “Is the UK stuck in Brexit limbo?”

Brexit risk fails to deter BoE from rate hike

The Bank of England (BoE) has raised its main policy interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% – its highest level since March 2009 and the first hike above the post-financial crisis level. The Bank backed away from raising rates in February owing to a significant slowdown in growth. However, data on retail sales and production … Continue reading “Brexit risk fails to deter BoE from rate hike”

A spot of turbulence

Global markets hit a rough patch in early February. Equity markets sold off, commodities softened, credit spreads widened and capital flowed out of emerging markets as volatility bounced back sharply. There have been a range of explanations offered for this dislocation, from jitters over rising inflation to concerns that rising term premia could snuff out … Continue reading “A spot of turbulence”

What does a normal interest rate look like?

Markets have been worried that interest rates in the west are heading back to normal in a hurry. If rates go too high too soon they could damage the recovery and do more harm to shares. As the West agonises over the pace of putting up interest rates and winding down special monetary measures, the … Continue reading “What does a normal interest rate look like?”

UK interest rate rises to be earlier and greater than expected

Latest comments from the Bank of England (BoE) and its governor Mark Carney indicate that UK interest rates are likely to go up sooner and faster than previously expected.  UK policymakers’ concerns about inflation have prompted Schroders’ economists to bring forward to November their expectations of a rise in interest rates. Schroders’ Senior European Economist … Continue reading “UK interest rate rises to be earlier and greater than expected”

UK growth edges higher, but BoE likely to hold

The initial estimate of GDP growth for the final quarter of 2017 showed the economy maintained a sluggish pace of growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. This takes GDP growth for 2017 to 1.8%, which is a fall from 1.9% in 2016, and the lowest annual growth rate since 2012. Slight growth pick-up is encouraging Within the … Continue reading “UK growth edges higher, but BoE likely to hold”