Looking back at the markets through April 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Optimism drives share prices in April Global equity markets generally rose during April, buoyed by encouraging economic data from the US. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its forecasts for global growth from 5.5% to 6% in 2021 and from 4.2% … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April 2021”

Inflation will rise and will test the Fed

The Federal Reserve accepts that inflation will rise above 2% this year, but the central bank insists this will be temporary and longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored. To many in the markets the authorities have got away with it. We have just lived through a period of unprecedented peacetime money creation by central banks, with … Continue reading “Inflation will rise and will test the Fed”

Stock markets are not economic reality

Equity cycles have some relationship to GDP growth, but they are also dependent on central banks’ policies, lending by commercial banks – and on investors’ ever-changing view of the future. Market commentators and forecasters spend a lot of time trying to predict what will happen to economies – and therefore to turnover and profits of … Continue reading “Stock markets are not economic reality”

How much more QE? Markets need their sugar high

Last week the Bank of Canada slipped out that it was cutting its Quantitative easing programme by one quarter, taking it down to C$3bn a week of bond buying from C$4bn. They got away with it, and markets remained unruffled. Over at the ECB, Mrs Lagarde wanted people to know they are accelerating their QE … Continue reading “How much more QE? Markets need their sugar high”

Things usually turn out better than we feared

Over time things have a habit of turning out better than we feared. This is not to suggest that we adopt a Pollyanna mindset, but to simply highlight that there is a tendency to view uncertainty as a negative.  Now, if we turn to the business of investing the whole exercise is fraught with uncertainty, … Continue reading “Things usually turn out better than we feared”

Looking back at the markets through March 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month.  Global Market Review “Light at the end of the tunnel”? The global economic outlook has improved, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), which upgraded its growth forecasts, as vaccine rollouts gain momentum and governments – particularly the US – provide … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through March 2021”

How strong might the UK’s post-Covid economic recovery be?

Despite encouraging signs, policy support will be required for some time to come. It has been a tough start to the year for the UK. As lockdown restrictions continue to slowly ease, we examine the progress made in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, and whether hopes for a strong economic recovery are well founded. Vaccines offered … Continue reading “How strong might the UK’s post-Covid economic recovery be?”

Are higher business taxes on the horizon?

The finance ministers and central bankers of the world’s biggest economies met to refine their action plans for recovery and world financial governance. What are the likely outcomes? Finance ministers and central bankers want to set a minimum corporation tax rate for the world, partly to prevent the largest global companies such as the digital … Continue reading “Are higher business taxes on the horizon?”

Running hot – but not too hot?

Last year, the big themes that found favour in the market were the digital winners from lockdown and the potential green winners from Build Back Better. This year, there is more emphasis on the shorter-term winners from recovery. The speed and nature of that recovery is now at the heart of the market debates. Will … Continue reading “Running hot – but not too hot?”

Bitcoin should not be considered an investment

Investors should be wary of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Charles Stanley does not consider them an ‘investable asset’ and we wouldn’t include digital coins in any of our portfolios. Cryptocurrencies were established to take the government out of money. Many people don’t trust central banks, believing these institutions will devalue their wealth by manipulating the … Continue reading “Bitcoin should not be considered an investment”

Looking back at the markets through December 2020

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Shares advance on vaccine optimism After a tumultuous year in which the coronavirus pandemic gripped the world, many major stock markets ended 2020 in positive territory. Investor sentiment was buoyed towards the end of the year by optimism over the prospect … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through December 2020”

Wall of money keeps markets buoyant

Inflation is not the enemy of central banks right now and their printing presses continue to run. Money creation look set to continue and government debts will rise. There is uniformity amongst the leading central banks of the world that recession, not inflation, is the enemy. They are all offering ultra-low interest rates, substantial money … Continue reading “Wall of money keeps markets buoyant”

Patience required on the path to recovery

The growing confidence that 2021 will be much better than the year we have just endured is probably correct. That these positive emotions are stirred over Christmas and new year is right and proper – as feelings of optimism and renewal are central themes in our winter celebrations. There is also real evidence to support … Continue reading “Patience required on the path to recovery”

Markets vs the Economy: The Big Disconnect

In March, governments across the world scrambled to contain COVID-19 by imposing draconian restrictions on activity.  As offices, shops, roads and rails emptied out, vast swathes of the economy were mothballed.  Over the next six months, we witnessed both the sharpest contraction and the fastest rebound on record, driven entirely by governments’ decisions to restrict … Continue reading “Markets vs the Economy: The Big Disconnect”

Debts, deficits and stimulus

We have just witnessed the Japanification of world finance as central bank attempt to counteract measures to stop Covid-19. How will this all end? Never before in human history has so much extra money been created by central banks and thrown at a deep recession. Never have governments pledged to borrow so much as they … Continue reading “Debts, deficits and stimulus”