The euro on the ballot paper?

What impact will the looming elections in Europe have on the euro and the markets? Revolts against the political establishments of advanced countries are becoming commonplace. The Brexit and Trump decisions have so far been positive for shares in the UK and US, despite big doubts and unhappiness for many in markets on the news. … Continue reading “The euro on the ballot paper?”

Will the UK consumer keep spending?

There have been alarms put round that the UK will witness a big squeeze on real incomes, leading to a reduction in consumer demand. The argument goes that the devaluation of the pound will cause substantial price increase, which will eat into wage increases and cause a fall in real incomes and spending power. The … Continue reading “Will the UK consumer keep spending?”

Volatile bonds: What is happening to interest rates?

This year the US, UK and German bond markets have moved together. Whatever the news, rates have followed similar trends and patterns. It is true US rates have stayed the highest of the three, and German rates by far the lowest. In each market rates fell from their highs on 1 January to reach new … Continue reading “Volatile bonds: What is happening to interest rates?”

Historic win by Donald Trump

An assessment of the historic win by Donald Trump in the US Presidential election. It was always a possibility that Mr Trump would win the US election, despite the worries and fears of market commentators and those in the main economic institutions.  Charles Stanley took a cautious approach ahead of the event, recognising that there … Continue reading “Historic win by Donald Trump”

Is a Trump win now possible?

John Redwood, Charles Stanley’s Chief Global Strategist, looks at Donald Trump’s performance in the US presidential election campaign Mr Trump has so far outperformed in this election. The pundits wrote him off early on. The whole might of the Republican Party got behind an alternative candidate to try to prevent him getting the nomination. Many … Continue reading “Is a Trump win now possible?”

Has China borrowed too much?

The worriers are back warning us that China has borrowed too much. If China was assessed by the same standards as the advanced world, they would be taking a different view. In China, state debt is only around 40% of GDP, compared to six times that amount in neighbouring Japan. The hostile commentators look at … Continue reading “Has China borrowed too much?”

Should we worry about Japanese debts?

Investors like to worry. When you’ve got your money at risk it is natural to do so. It is commonplace to read about the very high levels of Japanese state debt, with some querying how much longer it can carry on. Japan has the highest level of state indebtedness of the main economies. Its gross … Continue reading “Should we worry about Japanese debts?”

A tale of two visits

John Redwood, Chairman of the Investment Committee at Pan Asset takes a look at the Indian and Chinese stock markets. On the 20th October the President of China Xi Jinping will arrive in London for a state visit. The guest of the Queen, there will be a grand banquet at Buckingham Palace, and business meetings … Continue reading “A tale of two visits”

Sterling weakness and plenty of money

The UK has been battling down its government deficit for the last seven years.  In the March Budget book they forecast an annual deficit of £55bn for the present year, down from £72 bn this year. They also forecast a falling path for UK state borrowing as a proportion of our GDP, with net debt … Continue reading “Sterling weakness and plenty of money”

More details of the Lifetime ISA revealed

Earlier this year, the government announced a new Lifetime ISA will be launched in April 2017 to help young people buy their first home and save for retirement. What is a Lifetime ISA? The Lifetime ISA is to be a new option for those aged between 18 and 40 saving for retirement or a house … Continue reading “More details of the Lifetime ISA revealed”

Where do you find a good yield?

Part of the big idea of Central Banks creating money and buying bonds is to drive other investors to buy riskier assets. They want to stimulate more activity. They hope that by taking interest rates down to very low levels some people will spend more instead of saving, and others will be more adventurous with … Continue reading “Where do you find a good yield?”

A bull in the China shop?

The Chinese stock market has been making some upward progress this year after the dramatic boom and bust cycle it went through in 2015. The authorities had a plan to involve more Chinese people in the stock market, and to gradually open Chinese shares to more foreign capital and influence. Unfortunately for them, individual investors … Continue reading “A bull in the China shop?”