Evergrande: China’s Lehman moment?

Is the imminent default of Chinese property developer Evergrande about to destabilise the wider economy? Or has the risk been overblown? There have been some dramatic statements made about the difficulties of Chinese property developer Evergrande: it is China’s ‘Lehman moment’ or it undermines the integrity of China’s entire financial system. There are those who … Continue reading “Evergrande: China’s Lehman moment?”

Looking back at the markets through April 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Optimism drives share prices in April Global equity markets generally rose during April, buoyed by encouraging economic data from the US. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its forecasts for global growth from 5.5% to 6% in 2021 and from 4.2% … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April 2021”

Stock markets are not economic reality

Equity cycles have some relationship to GDP growth, but they are also dependent on central banks’ policies, lending by commercial banks – and on investors’ ever-changing view of the future. Market commentators and forecasters spend a lot of time trying to predict what will happen to economies – and therefore to turnover and profits of … Continue reading “Stock markets are not economic reality”

China offers a glimpse of life after lockdown

China delivered a startling reminder of what a post-pandemic world might look like, setting a new record high for domestic tourism during its Labour Day holiday this month. The national May 1-5 break saw 230 million Chinese citizens make in-country trips1 – the equivalent of more than half of the entire European Union on the … Continue reading “China offers a glimpse of life after lockdown”

Looking back at the markets through March 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month.  Global Market Review “Light at the end of the tunnel”? The global economic outlook has improved, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), which upgraded its growth forecasts, as vaccine rollouts gain momentum and governments – particularly the US – provide … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through March 2021”

Running hot – but not too hot?

Last year, the big themes that found favour in the market were the digital winners from lockdown and the potential green winners from Build Back Better. This year, there is more emphasis on the shorter-term winners from recovery. The speed and nature of that recovery is now at the heart of the market debates. Will … Continue reading “Running hot – but not too hot?”

Emerging markets lag in Covid-19 vaccine race

Constraints on the supply of Covid-19 vaccines have meant that the roll-out has been much slower in  emerging markets (EM) relative to developed markets. While some EM such as Chile and those in Central Eastern Europe are distributing inoculations relatively quickly, most are lagging behind. Despite warm words in recent weeks, the hoarding of vaccines … Continue reading “Emerging markets lag in Covid-19 vaccine race”

Looking back at the markets through January 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month.  Global Market Review “Unintended consequences” Financial markets are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a sharp correction that would, in turn, jeopardise stability, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF warned that investors’ expectations of continued support from governments and central banks has generated … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through January 2021”

What can investors expect from the Year of the Ox?

This year Chinese New Year ushers in the Year of the Ox, which began on Friday. The Ox is thought to be a symbol of reliability, strength, patience and caution. It is also associated with harvesting, fertility and prosperity. After a tumultuous 2020, many an investor will welcome financial markets that are reliable, strong and … Continue reading “What can investors expect from the Year of the Ox?”

Going Green In China

China needs massive investment to meet its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Estimates range from some US$6 trillion up to US$16 trillion. President Xi Jinping announced his country’s historic goal via a video link at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last September1. Carbon neutrality means China would have to remove … Continue reading “Going Green In China”

Looking back at the markets through December 2020

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Shares advance on vaccine optimism After a tumultuous year in which the coronavirus pandemic gripped the world, many major stock markets ended 2020 in positive territory. Investor sentiment was buoyed towards the end of the year by optimism over the prospect … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through December 2020”

Trade policy under Joe Biden

Donald Trump’s focus on trade will be tempered under President-elect Joe Biden, but he understands the potency of Mr Trump’s rhetoric on these matters. President Trump in 2016 set out to slash the large US balance of trade deficit. He identified his villains – China, Germany and Japan – and set about exposing the villainy. … Continue reading “Trade policy under Joe Biden”

Care needed with big power politics

The pandemic and the stimulus packages have preoccupied markets for most of this year but risks relating to the aims of the great powers are too important to ignore. The growing tensions between China and the US are likely to characterise the Biden era as much as Trump. One of the few things Democrats and … Continue reading “Care needed with big power politics”

The four “M”s: why the 21st century belongs to Asia

For a look into the future of the global economy, and where the power is shifting, consider technology developments in both China and India. In a mere decade, China’s e-commerce market has grown from less than 1% of global sales, into the world’s largest market in 2016, representing more than 40% of transactions by value. … Continue reading “The four “M”s: why the 21st century belongs to Asia”

Looking back at the markets through October

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review The “second wave” breaks Share prices fell heavily around the world during October as Covid-19 infection rates continued to rise. Governments intensified their lockdown measures, triggering concerns over prospects for economic recovery. “In the UK, rising infection rates led the Government … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through October”