Running hot – but not too hot?

Last year, the big themes that found favour in the market were the digital winners from lockdown and the potential green winners from Build Back Better. This year, there is more emphasis on the shorter-term winners from recovery. The speed and nature of that recovery is now at the heart of the market debates. Will … Continue reading “Running hot – but not too hot?”

Emerging markets lag in Covid-19 vaccine race

Constraints on the supply of Covid-19 vaccines have meant that the roll-out has been much slower in  emerging markets (EM) relative to developed markets. While some EM such as Chile and those in Central Eastern Europe are distributing inoculations relatively quickly, most are lagging behind. Despite warm words in recent weeks, the hoarding of vaccines … Continue reading “Emerging markets lag in Covid-19 vaccine race”

Looking back at the markets through January 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month.  Global Market Review “Unintended consequences” Financial markets are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a sharp correction that would, in turn, jeopardise stability, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF warned that investors’ expectations of continued support from governments and central banks has generated … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through January 2021”

What can investors expect from the Year of the Ox?

This year Chinese New Year ushers in the Year of the Ox, which began on Friday. The Ox is thought to be a symbol of reliability, strength, patience and caution. It is also associated with harvesting, fertility and prosperity. After a tumultuous 2020, many an investor will welcome financial markets that are reliable, strong and … Continue reading “What can investors expect from the Year of the Ox?”

Going Green In China

China needs massive investment to meet its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Estimates range from some US$6 trillion up to US$16 trillion. President Xi Jinping announced his country’s historic goal via a video link at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last September1. Carbon neutrality means China would have to remove … Continue reading “Going Green In China”

Looking back at the markets through December 2020

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Shares advance on vaccine optimism After a tumultuous year in which the coronavirus pandemic gripped the world, many major stock markets ended 2020 in positive territory. Investor sentiment was buoyed towards the end of the year by optimism over the prospect … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through December 2020”

Trade policy under Joe Biden

Donald Trump’s focus on trade will be tempered under President-elect Joe Biden, but he understands the potency of Mr Trump’s rhetoric on these matters. President Trump in 2016 set out to slash the large US balance of trade deficit. He identified his villains – China, Germany and Japan – and set about exposing the villainy. … Continue reading “Trade policy under Joe Biden”

Care needed with big power politics

The pandemic and the stimulus packages have preoccupied markets for most of this year but risks relating to the aims of the great powers are too important to ignore. The growing tensions between China and the US are likely to characterise the Biden era as much as Trump. One of the few things Democrats and … Continue reading “Care needed with big power politics”

The four “M”s: why the 21st century belongs to Asia

For a look into the future of the global economy, and where the power is shifting, consider technology developments in both China and India. In a mere decade, China’s e-commerce market has grown from less than 1% of global sales, into the world’s largest market in 2016, representing more than 40% of transactions by value. … Continue reading “The four “M”s: why the 21st century belongs to Asia”

Looking back at the markets through October

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review The “second wave” breaks Share prices fell heavily around the world during October as Covid-19 infection rates continued to rise. Governments intensified their lockdown measures, triggering concerns over prospects for economic recovery. “In the UK, rising infection rates led the Government … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through October”

Looking back at the markets through September

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Rising infection levels knock sentiment Share prices generally fell during September amid concerns over rising infection levels and their potential impact on economic activity. Investors’ worries were compounded by doubts over Brexit negotiations, continuing friction between the US and China over … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through September”

The virus remains difficult to control

Even in the most freedom-loving societies there was widespread buy into controls for the initial lockdowns. Now consent is waning. It’s been another week dominated by pandemic news. Donald Trump’s contentious approach to tackling the disease has been centre stage, with his self-announced triumph over the illness thanks to a couple of drugs that he … Continue reading “The virus remains difficult to control”

China plans to pull further ahead of the US in 5G

The fractious relationship between the US and China is changing global supply chains. China now plans to leapfrog the US in an essential component of the future economy, increasing divisions further. When Beijing decided that China needed to become an atomic power in the 1960s, its centrally-planned state directed significant resources and resolve into developing … Continue reading “China plans to pull further ahead of the US in 5G”

Looking back at the markets through August

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review   Share price rises defy an uncertain outlook Global share prices generally rose during August as investors took heart from ongoing fiscal and monetary support alongside some encouraging economic data. Nevertheless, the global economic outlook remains “highly uncertain”, according to the World … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through August”

Do shares always win in the long run?

It used to be a common belief of many managers that if you bought and held a portfolio of shares over any market cycle you would earn a decent return. This argument may be changing. The argument went that the sharp cycles in shares were based on shallower and shorter cycles for economies. They might … Continue reading “Do shares always win in the long run?”