Five key investor questions on China answered

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, our team considers the relative prospects for China’s economic recovery and stock market resurgence. What the pandemic has highlighted is large differences in state capacity to manage this crisis. Will China experience a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery? We are still at the beginning of an enormous economic and social repair job. Governments … Continue reading “Five key investor questions on China answered”

The beneficiaries of globalisation are right to be worried

The dispute between China and the US is likely to continue for many years as their clash of ideologies changes global trading patterns and supply chains. A senior American politician publicly derided one of the most important British companies on a scale we have not seen since attacks on BP following its oil spill in … Continue reading “The beneficiaries of globalisation are right to be worried”

Washington wants to halt US investment in Chinese companies

The controversy over the initial stages of the Covid-19 infection in China has allowed a raft of measures to be put on the table to ensure the superpower advantage remains with the US.  Washington wants to starve Chinese companies of money, with investors required to consider “America first”. In a speech given in the White … Continue reading “Washington wants to halt US investment in Chinese companies”

Looking back at the markets through May

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Pandemic continued to dominate markets The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through May”

China drives into global trouble

China may discover that more countries in the world now intend to stand up to Beijing’s actions, as the US finds a rare political unity in opposing its actions from technology to Hong Kong. In an ironic twist to the global story, China has relaxed its economy more and is making better progress with its … Continue reading “China drives into global trouble”

Looking back at the markets through February

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Investors take fright as coronavirus takes hold As the spread of coronavirus gathered pace across the world during February, investors became increasingly concerned that the economic impact could trigger a global recession.  “Central banks are coming under pressure to respond to … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through February”

International trade winds and stock markets

If the coronavirus situation escalates, world trade is in for a major supply shock that will damage company earnings and productivity. The outlook remains unclear. There were attacks on the international order of promoting free trade before the coronavirus hit. Many emerging countries refused to make rapid progress to lower tariffs and fewer barriers to … Continue reading “International trade winds and stock markets”

The biggest winner from coronavirus is Donald Trump

It should come as a surprise to no-one that the figures from China about coronavirus infections and deaths have been massaged to make them look better. As the crisis in Xi Jinping’s government from his mishandling of the situation mounts, the biggest winner is now becoming clear. It’s looking more and more likely that Donald … Continue reading “The biggest winner from coronavirus is Donald Trump”

A wall of money battles the virus

Some investment commentators had been relaxed about the Chinese virus, reading into the official numbers the idea that new cases had peaked. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China are all running supportive policies, putting money into markets in various ways. As this money helped drive … Continue reading “A wall of money battles the virus”

Looking back at the markets through January

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Coronavirus hits investor sentiment Investor sentiment was initially buoyed in January as the US and China signed their interim trade deal, driving US share indices to new all-time highs. However, major global equity markets ultimately ended the month in negative territory … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through January”

Big troubles for China

The Chinese government is facing pressures on a number of fronts. Its rulers may be about to find out that, for investors, good governance really matters. We have been negative about the prospects for the Chinese equity markets for some time. We worried about the slowdown in 2019 and the continuing hostility of the US … Continue reading “Big troubles for China”

Could the coronavirus derail the global recovery?

China is acting fast to contain the spread of coronavirus but the risk of economic disruption is high.  Concerns over the spread of the coronavirus are escalating as the death toll has jumped to 81 with 2,744 confirmed cases worldwide (as at 11:00 GMT, 27 January). Travel restrictions on about 40 million people around Wuhan, … Continue reading “Could the coronavirus derail the global recovery?”

How good is the US-China trade deal?

When the world’s two largest economies and powers sit down to talk, the world waits to learn what they have agreed. The document signed by the US and China this week is an unusual international agreement, as it has no reference to independent arbitration and little external reference to world bodies, mentioning the IMF on … Continue reading “How good is the US-China trade deal?”

Looking back at the markets through December

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Double-digit gains in 2019 Despite a year that was filled with political and social upheaval – from the trade war between the US and China, through Brexit, to the civil unrest in Hong Kong – many world markets achieved double-digit gains … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through December”

Looking back at Global markets in November

Global Market Review Brexit takes a back seat Although politics continued to dominate newsflow and sentiment in the UK during November, Brexit was superseded by the General Election as the focal point. As the different parties set out their manifestos, Brexit took a back seat as the focus of the different party leaders shifted to … Continue reading “Looking back at Global markets in November”