Where to next for the Eurozone

Will the Coronavirus battle trigger a Eurozone war? The economic and health impacts of coronavirus have not been distributed equally across the Eurozone. In particular, peripheral countries such as Italy have been hit hardest in human and economic terms. This has reopened old fault lines between member states about a shared fiscal policy to offset … Continue reading “Where to next for the Eurozone”

Assessing the economic hit from measures to stop Coronavirus

A summary of some of the estimates from industry bodies, economists and analysts on the impact of the economic damage from the measures introduced to slow the rate of infection of Covid-19.  The horse and cart made way for vehicles powered by the internal-combustion engine because the newcomer was faster and more efficient. Comparably, mass … Continue reading “Assessing the economic hit from measures to stop Coronavirus”

Scarring: Mapping the damage of the lockdowns

Governments are looking at the longer-term impact of lockdowns on their economies. Expect to hear more around the world about ‘scarring’ over the next few weeks. Chastened governments are examining the damage that lockdowns have brought. They are cautious about the speed at which they can relax to get more people back to work. They … Continue reading “Scarring: Mapping the damage of the lockdowns”

The shape of recovery

V, W, U or L? As the bear market continues, we’re looking ahead at the potential shape of economic recovery  – and what each different shape might mean for investors. V is for velocity Given the dramatic rises in stock markets in the past month, many investors may be hoping for a “V” shaped recovery. … Continue reading “The shape of recovery”

The hunt for quality and resilience

The enormous economic shock resulting from the pandemic will exacerbate or accelerate the existing problems and imbalances facing many companies and countries. For investors, an even more granular approach will be required when choosing between winners and losers. In this environment, ‘quality’ and ‘resilience’ are likely to become even more important investment themes, especially against … Continue reading “The hunt for quality and resilience”

Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors

Investors will need to be more agile than ever as Covid-19 reinforces many of the trends driving the world economy prior to the outbreak. “At the beginning of the plague, when there was now no more hope but that the whole city would be visited; when all that had friends or estates in the country … Continue reading “Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors”

Tiptoeing back to work

As the government starts easing some restrictions to try and get people back to work the danger of a spike in new Covid-19 infections is very real. This means it will take some time. On both sides of the Atlantic progress in getting back to work is slow and patchy. This is not going to … Continue reading “Tiptoeing back to work”

US profits: will they bounce back as quickly as investors think?

US earnings season is always a spectacle and this time around is no different. Well, no different but for one exceptional factor: Covid-19, and its effects on company profits. The businesses that make up the S&P 500 Index have started to tell us how they performed from January to March, a period of unprecedented operating … Continue reading “US profits: will they bounce back as quickly as investors think?”

Looking back at the markets through April

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Painful consequences Following March’s collapse in share prices, global stock markets made a partial recovery in April, although most major indices still sustained double-digit losses compared with the start of the year. As the coronavirus pandemic continued to cut a swathe … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April”

Keep calm and carry on

An unexpected global pandemic has triggered the third bear market of the 21st century. At the start of the year, equity analysts had priced in profits growth of 5-10% a year, now they are downgrading their profits estimates by 5-10% a week. One of the deepest economic recessions since the 1930s will expose some well-known … Continue reading “Keep calm and carry on”

Covid-19: why the tech giants have emerged as winners

While many businesses struggle to survive under the global lockdown, the largest technology companies remain afloat and in some cases are even thriving. Microsoft has reported a surge in usage of its cloud computing service Azure, as millions of people work from home. Amazon is hiring an additional 75,000 workers, on top of the 100,000 … Continue reading “Covid-19: why the tech giants have emerged as winners”

Same virus, different market reactions

Coronavirus dominates share market thinking and brought on the big bear dip in most markets. It does not, however, seem to be the severity of the virus that differentiates between the different countries. This week the value of companies quoted on the US Nasdaq index continued to outpace the value of all the listed companies … Continue reading “Same virus, different market reactions”

Oil price shock: the implications

The Coronavirus outbreak has caused widespread disruption in equity and bond markets, but it has also had some major repercussions for the oil price. This week, the cost of a barrel of oil turned negative for the first time as demand plummeted. That means oil producers are paying buyers to take the commodity off their … Continue reading “Oil price shock: the implications”

Market update – April 2020

It is now clear that the world economy is experiencing a sudden stop without precedent in peace time. During wars, economies generally operate at a flat out pace, and in the UK, the WWII induced return to full employment, post the 1930s Depression, necessitated higher taxes, not only to fund the government deficit, but also … Continue reading “Market update – April 2020”

Looking back at the markets through March

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review March Meltdown The extended bull run came to an abrupt end in March as the coronavirus continued to spread into Europe and America, and a collapse in confidence pushed share indices into bear-market territory. Investors suffered exceptionally high levels of volatility … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through March”