Looking back at the markets through April 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Optimism drives share prices in April Global equity markets generally rose during April, buoyed by encouraging economic data from the US. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its forecasts for global growth from 5.5% to 6% in 2021 and from 4.2% … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April 2021”

What can investors expect from the Year of the Ox?

This year Chinese New Year ushers in the Year of the Ox, which began on Friday. The Ox is thought to be a symbol of reliability, strength, patience and caution. It is also associated with harvesting, fertility and prosperity. After a tumultuous 2020, many an investor will welcome financial markets that are reliable, strong and … Continue reading “What can investors expect from the Year of the Ox?”

The virus is still costing the economy dear

Despite the equity market exuberance as vaccines boost recovery hopes, the spread of Covid-19 is still having a significant economic impact and will have for some time to come. Equity markets are well advanced in pricing in a strong economic recovery this year from the lockdowns on both sides of the Atlantic. It still seems … Continue reading “The virus is still costing the economy dear”

Treasuring trade

Global trade is good for everyone but it’s taken a back seat in the past year. Can we look forward to its renaissance in 2021 and beyond? One of the few topics on which economists agree is the benefits of global trade. Among the first lessons taught to economics students is the Ricardian theory of … Continue reading “Treasuring trade”

The four “M”s: why the 21st century belongs to Asia

For a look into the future of the global economy, and where the power is shifting, consider technology developments in both China and India. In a mere decade, China’s e-commerce market has grown from less than 1% of global sales, into the world’s largest market in 2016, representing more than 40% of transactions by value. … Continue reading “The four “M”s: why the 21st century belongs to Asia”

Five key investor questions on China answered

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, our team considers the relative prospects for China’s economic recovery and stock market resurgence. What the pandemic has highlighted is large differences in state capacity to manage this crisis. Will China experience a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery? We are still at the beginning of an enormous economic and social repair job. Governments … Continue reading “Five key investor questions on China answered”

The end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end

It is becoming clear that the global recovery from the COVID-19 recession began in May. Widespread, albeit still incomplete, success in slowing the spread of the virus has prompted most governments to begin easing lockdowns over recent weeks, following China’s earlier lead. That has led to broad-based improvements in business and consumer confidence, alternative indicators … Continue reading “The end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end”

Scarring: Mapping the damage of the lockdowns

Governments are looking at the longer-term impact of lockdowns on their economies. Expect to hear more around the world about ‘scarring’ over the next few weeks. Chastened governments are examining the damage that lockdowns have brought. They are cautious about the speed at which they can relax to get more people back to work. They … Continue reading “Scarring: Mapping the damage of the lockdowns”

Looking back at the markets through April

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Painful consequences Following March’s collapse in share prices, global stock markets made a partial recovery in April, although most major indices still sustained double-digit losses compared with the start of the year. As the coronavirus pandemic continued to cut a swathe … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April”

How long a shutdown can governments afford?

If a return to work is organised after the three-month stage, there will be some rebound, but economies will not spring back into full output immediately. The Central Banks have responded quickly and with great force to the crisis. Led by the Fed they have produced huge amounts of cash to keep markets afloat, rescuing … Continue reading “How long a shutdown can governments afford?”

Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession

The coronavirus is having a severe effect on global economic activity and amidst considerable uncertainty we have attempted to gauge the impact and updated our forecasts. We now expect to see the world economy contract this year by 3.1%, before rebounding by 7.2% in 2021. The forecast incorporates a severe recession in the first half … Continue reading “Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession”

The US-EU economic battle

Donald Trump spoke out at Davos, condemning the people he called the “perennial prophets of doom” for forecasting climate and other disasters. He said they “are the heirs of yesterday’s foolish fortune tellers. They want us to do badly”. He did not name the EU or individual European countries, but the implication was clear. His … Continue reading “The US-EU economic battle”

Could the coronavirus derail the global recovery?

China is acting fast to contain the spread of coronavirus but the risk of economic disruption is high.  Concerns over the spread of the coronavirus are escalating as the death toll has jumped to 81 with 2,744 confirmed cases worldwide (as at 11:00 GMT, 27 January). Travel restrictions on about 40 million people around Wuhan, … Continue reading “Could the coronavirus derail the global recovery?”

Bank of England takes dovish turn, but for how long?

The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates at 0.75% as expected. However, there was a surprise as two members of the monetary policy committee voted to cut rates. The more dovish1 vote (7-2 rather than the widely expected 9-0) came alongside a downgrade to the bank’s global growth assumptions. Weaker UK growth is also … Continue reading “Bank of England takes dovish turn, but for how long?”

A look at equity markets in Japan and China

On a day when Wall Street has reached new all-time highs, there has been some favourable effects on equity markets around the world. The bulls are buying, hoping that there will be some modest trade deal soon between the US and China. Meanwhile, all can enjoy the benefits of low-interest rates and more money available … Continue reading “A look at equity markets in Japan and China”