Assessing the economic hit from measures to stop Coronavirus

A summary of some of the estimates from industry bodies, economists and analysts on the impact of the economic damage from the measures introduced to slow the rate of infection of Covid-19.  The horse and cart made way for vehicles powered by the internal-combustion engine because the newcomer was faster and more efficient. Comparably, mass … Continue reading “Assessing the economic hit from measures to stop Coronavirus”

Scarring: Mapping the damage of the lockdowns

Governments are looking at the longer-term impact of lockdowns on their economies. Expect to hear more around the world about ‘scarring’ over the next few weeks. Chastened governments are examining the damage that lockdowns have brought. They are cautious about the speed at which they can relax to get more people back to work. They … Continue reading “Scarring: Mapping the damage of the lockdowns”

The hunt for quality and resilience

The enormous economic shock resulting from the pandemic will exacerbate or accelerate the existing problems and imbalances facing many companies and countries. For investors, an even more granular approach will be required when choosing between winners and losers. In this environment, ‘quality’ and ‘resilience’ are likely to become even more important investment themes, especially against … Continue reading “The hunt for quality and resilience”

Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors

Investors will need to be more agile than ever as Covid-19 reinforces many of the trends driving the world economy prior to the outbreak. “At the beginning of the plague, when there was now no more hope but that the whole city would be visited; when all that had friends or estates in the country … Continue reading “Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors”

US profits: will they bounce back as quickly as investors think?

US earnings season is always a spectacle and this time around is no different. Well, no different but for one exceptional factor: Covid-19, and its effects on company profits. The businesses that make up the S&P 500 Index have started to tell us how they performed from January to March, a period of unprecedented operating … Continue reading “US profits: will they bounce back as quickly as investors think?”

Looking back at the markets through April

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Painful consequences Following March’s collapse in share prices, global stock markets made a partial recovery in April, although most major indices still sustained double-digit losses compared with the start of the year. As the coronavirus pandemic continued to cut a swathe … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April”

Keep calm and carry on

An unexpected global pandemic has triggered the third bear market of the 21st century. At the start of the year, equity analysts had priced in profits growth of 5-10% a year, now they are downgrading their profits estimates by 5-10% a week. One of the deepest economic recessions since the 1930s will expose some well-known … Continue reading “Keep calm and carry on”

Oil price shock: the implications

The Coronavirus outbreak has caused widespread disruption in equity and bond markets, but it has also had some major repercussions for the oil price. This week, the cost of a barrel of oil turned negative for the first time as demand plummeted. That means oil producers are paying buyers to take the commodity off their … Continue reading “Oil price shock: the implications”

‘Lockdown for longer’ is a major market threat

Stock markets have staged a significant recovery from the Coronavirus slump, rallying sharply from lows hit in March. But gains of 10% or more are common in bear markets – and the crisis at many of the world’s businesses has only just begun. A wave of insolvencies will puncture the optimism, as companies with too … Continue reading “‘Lockdown for longer’ is a major market threat”

How long a shutdown can governments afford?

If a return to work is organised after the three-month stage, there will be some rebound, but economies will not spring back into full output immediately. The Central Banks have responded quickly and with great force to the crisis. Led by the Fed they have produced huge amounts of cash to keep markets afloat, rescuing … Continue reading “How long a shutdown can governments afford?”

Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession

The coronavirus is having a severe effect on global economic activity and amidst considerable uncertainty we have attempted to gauge the impact and updated our forecasts. We now expect to see the world economy contract this year by 3.1%, before rebounding by 7.2% in 2021. The forecast incorporates a severe recession in the first half … Continue reading “Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession”

Covid-19: Three economic scenarios

Markets are governed by the duration and impact of the many measures being taken to limit and reduce the number of people contracting the COVID-19 virus. This was the week when the western advanced world changed dramatically, with the governments deciding to ban or advise against all events, tourism, entertainment and hospitality outside the home. … Continue reading “Covid-19: Three economic scenarios”

Looking back at the markets through February

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Investors take fright as coronavirus takes hold As the spread of coronavirus gathered pace across the world during February, investors became increasingly concerned that the economic impact could trigger a global recession.  “Central banks are coming under pressure to respond to … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through February”

How should investors act in a crisis?

With markets reeling from the effects of coronavirus, Schroders’ Group CIO highlights what investors should focus on. Coronavirus is the latest threat to market harmony that once again poses a timeless question: how should investors act in a crisis? Whether you’re a fund manager, responsible for billions of pounds of other people’s money, or an … Continue reading “How should investors act in a crisis?”

International trade winds and stock markets

If the coronavirus situation escalates, world trade is in for a major supply shock that will damage company earnings and productivity. The outlook remains unclear. There were attacks on the international order of promoting free trade before the coronavirus hit. Many emerging countries refused to make rapid progress to lower tariffs and fewer barriers to … Continue reading “International trade winds and stock markets”