Brexit: One year on

On the first anniversary of the historic vote to leave the European Union, a panel of Schroders’ experts look at the impact the referendum has had on the UK from an economic, fixed income and equity perspective.  When the result of the UK’s EU referendum confirmed that the UK had voted to leave, markets were … Continue reading “Brexit: One year on”

UK election: what a hung parliament means for markets

Following the surprise UK general election result, Schroders’ Alix Stewart,  David Docherty & Azad Zangana, consider the implications for the economy and markets.   The UK general election has resulted in a hung parliament, with no party commanding an overall majority. The Conservatives have emerged as the largest party and will likely seek to form … Continue reading “UK election: what a hung parliament means for markets”

Could the election hit your portfolio?

Theresa May is likely to increase her majority in today’s general election, although some outlier polls have suggested a hung parliament is a possibility. Here’s what could happen to markets. Charles Stanley is neutral regarding the outcome of the today’s campaign, but the polling and the commentary about the vote suggests a Conservative win with … Continue reading “Could the election hit your portfolio?”

Can reform make a difference to India?

The Indian economy is growing well, and the stock market has rallied with the emerging markets generally this year. Prime Minister Modi has been popular with many voters and with the international business community since first taking up the office. He has talked up his view that India needs to reform to accelerate its growth rate. … Continue reading “Can reform make a difference to India?”

Why all investors should care about China

Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Global Macro Investment Strategist at BlackRock, puts China in context, showing how important it has become for the global economy. China’s debt-driven growth model is starting to reach its limits. Yet the country is also transitioning into a high-tech, more consumer-driven economy. How this economic evolution plays out will have major … Continue reading “Why all investors should care about China”

The UK economy as pictured in the Budget

The UK budget will be remembered for the controversy over a proposed increase in National Insurance Contributions for the self-employed. This measure is designed to raise just £645m or less than 0.1% of total revenues in 2019-20.   Instead it was notable for the large movements of money brought about by changes in forecast. Where … Continue reading “The UK economy as pictured in the Budget”

Why 2017 UK inflation fears are overdone

UK inflation in November came in higher than expected, but we think that concerns over a damaging rise in prices over the next 12-18 months are overdone. On the face of it a sharp rise in inflation looks likely, with worrying implications.  UK imports account for 30% of GDP and trade-weighted Sterling is 15% lower … Continue reading “Why 2017 UK inflation fears are overdone”

Donald Trump confirmed as the next US President

In this piece, we summarise how we expect Donald Trump’s election as US President to affect the international political arena, the global economy and its investment markets. Now that the dust has settled, Donald Trump has emerged victorious in the 2016 US Presidential election and is scheduled to be sworn in as President on 20 … Continue reading “Donald Trump confirmed as the next US President”

U.S. election: Trump win

Views from Blackrock’s Strategists & Portfolio Teams – We see Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory bringing market and policy uncertainty in the short run. Trump’s agenda lacks detail and departs from the Republican Party tradition on trade, security and entitlements. Tapping into a backlash against the Washington status quo, he has often … Continue reading “U.S. election: Trump win”

Is a Trump win now possible?

John Redwood, Charles Stanley’s Chief Global Strategist, looks at Donald Trump’s performance in the US presidential election campaign Mr Trump has so far outperformed in this election. The pundits wrote him off early on. The whole might of the Republican Party got behind an alternative candidate to try to prevent him getting the nomination. Many … Continue reading “Is a Trump win now possible?”

Gilt yields surged during October

UK gilt yields surged and prices fell in October amid waning demand for sterling-denominated assets. During October, the pound reached its lowest level against the euro since 2011 and its lowest level against the US dollar for over thirty years. Nevertheless, despite the ongoing weakness in the pound, the UK’s trade deficit widened during August: … Continue reading “Gilt yields surged during October”

US Presidential election takes centre stage

The imminent Presidential election continued to absorb much of the limelight in the US. On balance, investors appear to believe that Hillary Clinton will emerge victorious, although the House of Representatives is expected to remain in Republican hands, albeit with a lower majority. Nevertheless, in a close-run – and often bad-tempered – election campaign, investors … Continue reading “US Presidential election takes centre stage”

US election: uncertain predictions and market risks

What Brexit teaches us about trusting betting exchanges and polls in the run-up to the US election, and some of the market implications of the possible results. Betting exchanges vs polls We learned from the Scottish referendum that betting exchanges were a better predictor of a particular voting outcome than the official polls. The Brexit … Continue reading “US election: uncertain predictions and market risks”