The shape of recovery

V, W, U or L? As the bear market continues, we’re looking ahead at the potential shape of economic recovery  – and what each different shape might mean for investors. V is for velocity Given the dramatic rises in stock markets in the past month, many investors may be hoping for a “V” shaped recovery. … Continue reading “The shape of recovery”

Looking back at the markets through April

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Painful consequences Following March’s collapse in share prices, global stock markets made a partial recovery in April, although most major indices still sustained double-digit losses compared with the start of the year. As the coronavirus pandemic continued to cut a swathe … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April”

Same virus, different market reactions

Coronavirus dominates share market thinking and brought on the big bear dip in most markets. It does not, however, seem to be the severity of the virus that differentiates between the different countries. This week the value of companies quoted on the US Nasdaq index continued to outpace the value of all the listed companies … Continue reading “Same virus, different market reactions”

Market update – April 2020

It is now clear that the world economy is experiencing a sudden stop without precedent in peace time. During wars, economies generally operate at a flat out pace, and in the UK, the WWII induced return to full employment, post the 1930s Depression, necessitated higher taxes, not only to fund the government deficit, but also … Continue reading “Market update – April 2020”

Looking back at the markets through February

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Investors take fright as coronavirus takes hold As the spread of coronavirus gathered pace across the world during February, investors became increasingly concerned that the economic impact could trigger a global recession.  “Central banks are coming under pressure to respond to … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through February”

Why is the current market vulnerable?

Sharp falls in equity markets are never pleasant for investors, but the recent market weakness needs to be viewed in context of last year’s market environment, where we saw one of the strongest rallies in global equities in recent times. To illustrate, the US stock market (S&P 500) returned 31.5% in US Dollar terms last … Continue reading “Why is the current market vulnerable?”

Looking back at the markets through January

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Coronavirus hits investor sentiment Investor sentiment was initially buoyed in January as the US and China signed their interim trade deal, driving US share indices to new all-time highs. However, major global equity markets ultimately ended the month in negative territory … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through January”

Big troubles for China

The Chinese government is facing pressures on a number of fronts. Its rulers may be about to find out that, for investors, good governance really matters. We have been negative about the prospects for the Chinese equity markets for some time. We worried about the slowdown in 2019 and the continuing hostility of the US … Continue reading “Big troubles for China”

Markets are due a pause for breath

Shares continue to rocket, with equity market gains in 2020 impressive. But can this performance continue?  After the party comes the hangover. The risk-on rally in equities that started at the end of September looks overdue for a pause – and any correction following the recent melt-up would be pretty healthy. For investors becoming concerned … Continue reading “Markets are due a pause for breath”

Markets can get too exuberant

The recent all-time highs in the S&P 500 this week mean it has now hit more records this year than it did in 2018. There may even be more to come. However, it was at this time last year that an equity market sell-off gathered steam, with the usual “Santa Claus” rally failing to materialise. … Continue reading “Markets can get too exuberant”

Looking back at the markets through October

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Election fever October saw the UK plunge into election fever as progress on Brexit once again ground to a halt. Although Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to reach a new Brexit Withdrawal Agreement with the EU , he failed to win … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through October”

Muddling through with low interest rates

Central bank action has supported markets this year but we need to see a recovery in corporate earnings. The world should escape a general recession this winter. The forecast manufacturing downturn has occurred, led by falls in vehicle output. Individual countries have flirted with recession. Italy was in a shallow recession last year, and German … Continue reading “Muddling through with low interest rates”

Looking back at the markets through September

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review What next for Brexit? The long-running Brexit saga took a new twist in September as the clock continued to tick towards its Hallowe’en deadline. After being suspended earlier in the month, the UK Parliament was hastily reconvened towards the end of … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through September”

Looking back at the markets through August

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Parliament’s suspension creates controversy The prospect of a no-deal Brexit crept closer during August as Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that Parliament would be suspended shortly after MPs return from their summer break until the Queen’s Speech on 14 October. The … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through August”

Looking back at the markets through July

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month.   Global market review Possibility of “no deal” moves closer Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt during July to become the new leader of the Conservative Party and the UK’s new Prime Minister. The new Government’s harder-line approach to Brexit – and the increased prospect … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through July”