Is the Federal Reserve really in control?

Whenever investors have a rush of doubt over inflationary pressures or the possibility the Fed might start to reduce its assistance, there are short, sharp sell-offs in riskier assets. The Fed is very clear about what it is trying to do. It is working closely with the Biden Administration on a huge joint stimulus of … Continue reading “Is the Federal Reserve really in control?”

Looking back at the markets through April 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Optimism drives share prices in April Global equity markets generally rose during April, buoyed by encouraging economic data from the US. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its forecasts for global growth from 5.5% to 6% in 2021 and from 4.2% … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April 2021”

Inflation will rise and will test the Fed

The Federal Reserve accepts that inflation will rise above 2% this year, but the central bank insists this will be temporary and longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored. To many in the markets the authorities have got away with it. We have just lived through a period of unprecedented peacetime money creation by central banks, with … Continue reading “Inflation will rise and will test the Fed”

Looking back at the markets through March 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month.  Global Market Review “Light at the end of the tunnel”? The global economic outlook has improved, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), which upgraded its growth forecasts, as vaccine rollouts gain momentum and governments – particularly the US – provide … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through March 2021”

Looking back at the markets through February 2021

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month.  Global Market Review Concerns grow over inflation Although most major equity indices ended February in positive territory, the month finished on a question-mark. A sharp sell-off across bond markets pushed up bond yields and drove down demand for growth stocks as investors assessed the … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through February 2021”

Running hot – but not too hot?

Last year, the big themes that found favour in the market were the digital winners from lockdown and the potential green winners from Build Back Better. This year, there is more emphasis on the shorter-term winners from recovery. The speed and nature of that recovery is now at the heart of the market debates. Will … Continue reading “Running hot – but not too hot?”

Wall of money keeps markets buoyant

Inflation is not the enemy of central banks right now and their printing presses continue to run. Money creation look set to continue and government debts will rise. There is uniformity amongst the leading central banks of the world that recession, not inflation, is the enemy. They are all offering ultra-low interest rates, substantial money … Continue reading “Wall of money keeps markets buoyant”

Brexit, US Stimulus and Fed meetings the key focus for investors

Brexit and US Stimulus deadlines pass without meaningful change The Collins Dictionary defines a deadline as ‘a time or date before which a particular task must be finished or a particular thing must be done.’ With US Fiscal Stimulus and Brexit talks both hurtling through yet another pair of ‘deadlines’ at the end of last … Continue reading “Brexit, US Stimulus and Fed meetings the key focus for investors”

Looking back at the markets through October

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review The “second wave” breaks Share prices fell heavily around the world during October as Covid-19 infection rates continued to rise. Governments intensified their lockdown measures, triggering concerns over prospects for economic recovery. “In the UK, rising infection rates led the Government … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through October”

Debts, deficits and stimulus

We have just witnessed the Japanification of world finance as central bank attempt to counteract measures to stop Covid-19. How will this all end? Never before in human history has so much extra money been created by central banks and thrown at a deep recession. Never have governments pledged to borrow so much as they … Continue reading “Debts, deficits and stimulus”

Fed repression could turn to Fed regret

At its latest policy meeting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled that interest rates would be close to zero for the next three years as it aimed to hit its new objective of a 2% average inflation target and maximum employment. The central bank’s economic projections show that it intends to run the economy “hot” … Continue reading “Fed repression could turn to Fed regret”

The US election – just political noise?

The weakness in US equity markets in September appeared to come as a surprise to many investors, despite history pointing to this being seasonally quite typical. After such a strong and persistent rally since the Covid-19 lows of March, profit taking and market consolidation should be seen as a positive rather than a negative. However, … Continue reading “The US election – just political noise?”

Looking back at the markets through August

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review   Share price rises defy an uncertain outlook Global share prices generally rose during August as investors took heart from ongoing fiscal and monetary support alongside some encouraging economic data. Nevertheless, the global economic outlook remains “highly uncertain”, according to the World … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through August”

Central banks continue to prop-up markets

The tsunami of money has been unprecedented and is the main reason equity markets have performed as they have. The stimulus measures have been at their largest in the US, where money growth has shot up to 25% for the year. In the Eurozone and the UK, it is a lively but more modest 10%. … Continue reading “Central banks continue to prop-up markets”

Looking back at the markets through May

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Pandemic continued to dominate markets The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through May”