Is the UK stuck in Brexit limbo?

The UK has been granted its second extension to the Article 50 deadline, averting a no-deal Brexit that would have happened on 12 April. The UK now has until 31 October to ratify the current Withdrawal Agreement, although there was some disagreement amongst other EU members as to how much longer the UK should be … Continue reading “Is the UK stuck in Brexit limbo?”

Germany will pay the price for Italy’s provocation of Trump

The Italians have joined China’s controversial “New Silk Road” programme, a move that is likely to stoke the ire of Washington. At the weekend, Italian populists handed Donald Trump yet another reason to turn his trade guns on Europe, increasing the risk of a German recession. At a signing ceremony in Rome, Chinese President Xi … Continue reading “Germany will pay the price for Italy’s provocation of Trump”

Panning for gold in murky waters

In 2018, international investors pulled out more than €50 billion from European equities in response to weakening Eurozone economic data, uncertainty over Brexit and concerns about Italian banks. Today, investors’ positioning in Europe is as underweight as it has been since the Eurozone crisis. It is understandable that investors are wary of a potential economic … Continue reading “Panning for gold in murky waters”

Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead

It seems clear to us that the world investors have got used to over the last few years is very different to the one we need to get accustomed to in the years to come. We have identified a number of economic forces and disruptive forces we think will shape the investment landscape ahead of … Continue reading “Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead”

Does the Trump-Kim summit matter for investors?

If North Korea gives up its nuclear arsenal, Donald Trump has promised that the country will have an “awesome” economic future with a wealth of opportunities on offer. The US president is not alone in seeing vast potential in the reclusive Asian nation. Billionaire Jim Rogers, one of the world’s most successful investors, famously said … Continue reading “Does the Trump-Kim summit matter for investors?”

The Brexit deadline looms

The UK ended February with the question of Brexit still unanswered.  The month was dominated by political newsflow as concerns over Brexit were compounded by the resignation of eleven MPs who left the Conservative or Labour parties to form ‘The Independent Group’.  A second ‘meaningful vote’ on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will take … Continue reading “The Brexit deadline looms”

Pressures on the EU as elections loom

We are in the long run up to the European Parliamentary elections. This will be followed by the appointment of a new European Commission. It means there will be an argument over the future direction of EU and euro policy, with a wide range of views from those who with En Marche in France want … Continue reading “Pressures on the EU as elections loom”

Is Brazil the new Saudi Arabia?

Could forestry’s importance in reducing carbon emissions and the rising cost of carbon credits change the world economy?  Forestry is a key element of the carbon emissions reduction puzzle. Trees cover 31% of the world’s land surface, equal to just over 4 billion hectares1. Each hectare of forest removes about 10 tons of carbon dioxide … Continue reading “Is Brazil the new Saudi Arabia?”

No time to be pig-headed

The trade war is dominating headlines and shaking investor confidence in China. But as we enter Year of the Pig, it’s worth remembering this is a long-term growth story. No sooner have the Christmas decorations come down than new ones have gone up to mark the Lunar New Year, which starts on February 5. It’s … Continue reading “No time to be pig-headed”

Trade: Will Trump rediscover the art of the deal?

The markets have two problems with US President Trump’s approach to the trade talks. The first is he is so unpredictable that it makes it very difficult for commentators and forecasters to come up with a well-based vision of what the future holds. The second is there is a nagging worry that the US China … Continue reading “Trade: Will Trump rediscover the art of the deal?”

Davos: world leaders miss out on the personal touch

In some ways Davos looks much the same as in previous years. The world’s great and good from politics, academia, business and the media have once again descended on Switzerland. The combination of all of these companies and leaders from around the world in an otherwise quiet and rural backwater is as incongruous as ever. … Continue reading “Davos: world leaders miss out on the personal touch”

Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war

Optimism that the trade war that has ravaged global markets could be resolved soon is mounting. China’s Ministry of Commerce said that last week’s discussions with US representatives were extensive and had established a foundation for the resolution of each country’s concerns. In fact, it appears that things are moving into place for Donald Trump … Continue reading “Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war”

China and Taiwan tensions build

President Xi Jinping’s statement that Taiwan is properly part of China and will be fully integrated one day is not new policy. Nonetheless it seemed to upset the Hong Kong market, and made investors wonder whether there was to be a new tougher phase in China’s relations with the very successful island economy of Taiwan. … Continue reading “China and Taiwan tensions build”

2018: A year to forget

2018 will be a year that many investors would rather forget. A lucky few will still be looking for an overall gain for the year, but the past few months have proved extremely uncomfortable. What have been the highs and lows of the year?  Research by Willis Owen shows that eight sectors delivered a positive … Continue reading “2018: A year to forget”

G20 stare down does not de-escalate tensions

It would be easy to see last weekend’s G20 meeting a heralding a thaw in the US-China trade war. But it hasn’t. There are some positives. It looks increasingly likely that the US will not put in place a fresh 10-25% tariff hike in January on $250bn of Chinese exports, as most had thought. It … Continue reading “G20 stare down does not de-escalate tensions”