The art of the deal and tax cuts for the US

President Trump promised the USA the art of the deal when he came to office. He conjured a view of a successful businessman cutting a better deal for working America, with a new approach to trade, tax, infrastructure spending and the rest to promote a more prosperous country. Seven months on, some are asking if … Continue reading “The art of the deal and tax cuts for the US”

Are markets underestimating geopolitical risk?

Every week it appears that North Korea tests a missile that falls safely in the Sea of Japan. Saudi Arabia and its close neighbour Qatar are having a spat about terrorism funding, could they come to blows and what would that mean for the oil price? Should we worry about such events? And how will … Continue reading “Are markets underestimating geopolitical risk?”

Euro area prospects

Markets heaved a sigh of relief when the Dutch election failed to give Mr Wilders the government and when Mr Macron swept into the Presidency of France along with a Parliamentary majority. It meant the euro was safe for a bit from parties and candidates who wished to break it up. We have been positive … Continue reading “Euro area prospects”

Putting politicians on pedestals only leads to disappointment

It is hard to overstate the expectations resting on Emmanuel Macron’s shoulders. He has only just been elected and already he is being heralded as Europe’s saviour. But high expectations can easily drift into unrealistic ones. A little circumspection would better serve us all. Macron’s ascent is certainly remarkable. His party didn’t even exist eighteen … Continue reading “Putting politicians on pedestals only leads to disappointment”

Merkel’s world collides with Trump

The G20 meeting this week in Hamburg should be just another review meeting by the 19 largest economies and the EU.  The Agenda is full of long term ambitions and intractable problems, from climate change to gender equality, from financial stability to managing refugees.  You can read the background papers as worthy long term statements … Continue reading “Merkel’s world collides with Trump”

Could the election hit your portfolio?

Theresa May is likely to increase her majority in today’s general election, although some outlier polls have suggested a hung parliament is a possibility. Here’s what could happen to markets. Charles Stanley is neutral regarding the outcome of the today’s campaign, but the polling and the commentary about the vote suggests a Conservative win with … Continue reading “Could the election hit your portfolio?”

A pleasant surprise from President Trump

It’s fashionable to write off President Trump. His healthcare reform has been slowed by strong opposition, his tax reform has been delayed, and now he is being investigated over his links with Russia and the removal of the FBI Head from office. The market has wobbled over these difficulties. Meanwhile President Trump has turned his … Continue reading “A pleasant surprise from President Trump”

Why we are still optimistic

When we sat down this week to review world markets and world economies the surprising thing was how few surprises there have been so far this year. We expected the euro to survive its brushes with mortality in the Dutch and French elections. It has done so. We like many have forecast reasonable growth of … Continue reading “Why we are still optimistic”

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

Investment sentiment continued to be dominated by political noise over the past month, with the French Presidential Election and Theresa May’s calling of a snap UK General Election taking over the front-page headlines from Trump and Brexit. The overall effect of the news-flow proved positive for global stockmarkets and the MSCI World index increased by … Continue reading “Should I Stay Or Should I Go?”

Trump’s first 100 days: how markets have performed

Is the “Trump bump” over? The surge in the stockmarket, the dollar and bond yields that welcomed Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House has shown signs of flagging as his first 100 days approaches. Donald Trump sailed into the White House on a wave of populist, pro-trade polices. He promised to spend big, create … Continue reading “Trump’s first 100 days: how markets have performed”

Theresa May announces UK general election

This morning, UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced the government’s intention to hold a snap general election on 8 June 2017. Parliament will vote to set a date for the election tomorrow, needing a supermajority of two-thirds in favour to pass, although this is expected with the opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn having already welcomed the … Continue reading “Theresa May announces UK general election”

Should investors worry about Syria and North Korea?

The aircraft carrier USS Vinson is being sent close to North Korea with a ballistic missile cruiser and two ballistic missile destroyers in attendance. The Korean peninsula sits uneasily between China and Japan, adjacent to Beijing and Tokyo.   As President Xi of China and President Trump sat down to dinner last week, two different … Continue reading “Should investors worry about Syria and North Korea?”

Change from China?

There was little fuss when China overtook the US as the world’s largest economy, as measured using figures corrected for relative purchasing power.   There was more concern in the US as China asserted itself by claiming the nine dash line from Taiwan round to the Paracel islands, seeking control over a series of islands … Continue reading “Change from China?”