Where to next for the Eurozone

Will the Coronavirus battle trigger a Eurozone war? The economic and health impacts of coronavirus have not been distributed equally across the Eurozone. In particular, peripheral countries such as Italy have been hit hardest in human and economic terms. This has reopened old fault lines between member states about a shared fiscal policy to offset … Continue reading “Where to next for the Eurozone”

Tiptoeing back to work

As the government starts easing some restrictions to try and get people back to work the danger of a spike in new Covid-19 infections is very real. This means it will take some time. On both sides of the Atlantic progress in getting back to work is slow and patchy. This is not going to … Continue reading “Tiptoeing back to work”

US profits: will they bounce back as quickly as investors think?

US earnings season is always a spectacle and this time around is no different. Well, no different but for one exceptional factor: Covid-19, and its effects on company profits. The businesses that make up the S&P 500 Index have started to tell us how they performed from January to March, a period of unprecedented operating … Continue reading “US profits: will they bounce back as quickly as investors think?”

Keep calm and carry on

An unexpected global pandemic has triggered the third bear market of the 21st century. At the start of the year, equity analysts had priced in profits growth of 5-10% a year, now they are downgrading their profits estimates by 5-10% a week. One of the deepest economic recessions since the 1930s will expose some well-known … Continue reading “Keep calm and carry on”

Looking back at the markets through January

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Coronavirus hits investor sentiment Investor sentiment was initially buoyed in January as the US and China signed their interim trade deal, driving US share indices to new all-time highs. However, major global equity markets ultimately ended the month in negative territory … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through January”

Big troubles for China

The Chinese government is facing pressures on a number of fronts. Its rulers may be about to find out that, for investors, good governance really matters. We have been negative about the prospects for the Chinese equity markets for some time. We worried about the slowdown in 2019 and the continuing hostility of the US … Continue reading “Big troubles for China”

Looking back at the markets through December

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Double-digit gains in 2019 Despite a year that was filled with political and social upheaval – from the trade war between the US and China, through Brexit, to the civil unrest in Hong Kong – many world markets achieved double-digit gains … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through December”

Surprises in European equities

Why have European equities performed so well in 2019 and what are the prospects for 2020? For much of 2019, European equities were an unloved asset class, shunned by investors. At first sight, this was understandable – the region is growing only slowly, wracked by political tensions and wrestling with headwinds in vital sectors such as … Continue reading “Surprises in European equities”

Looking back at the markets through October

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Election fever October saw the UK plunge into election fever as progress on Brexit once again ground to a halt. Although Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to reach a new Brexit Withdrawal Agreement with the EU , he failed to win … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through October”

The impact of US foreign policy on markets

Trade restrictions and tariffs are the main response of the Trump administration to foreign disagreements, but there are some positives too. Donald Trump moves markets. He watches them regularly and tries to influence them by what he says and what he does. He sees a rising US share market as proof that he is making … Continue reading “The impact of US foreign policy on markets”

China oil deal with Iran could derail trade talks

Don’t get too excited about the current thaw in the trade war. Despite both sides appearing to talk up the prospects of a deal ahead of talks that resumed in Washington yesterday, there has been a major development that could put any final agreement at risk. Since talks were last held, China has signed a … Continue reading “China oil deal with Iran could derail trade talks”

Looking back at the markets through August

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Parliament’s suspension creates controversy The prospect of a no-deal Brexit crept closer during August as Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that Parliament would be suspended shortly after MPs return from their summer break until the Queen’s Speech on 14 October. The … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through August”

How does geopolitics impact investment returns and what can you do about it?

Schroder’s economists have analysed the effect geopolitical risk can have on investors’ portfolios. Should investors simply hold their nerve during volatile times? Or is it better to entrust fund managers able to take a more dynamic approach? Geopolitics can significantly impact investment returns; whether it’s trade wars, actual wars, populist politicians or terrorist attacks. Geopolitical … Continue reading “How does geopolitics impact investment returns and what can you do about it?”

The G7 solves nothing

The meeting of leaders over the weekend in Biarritz led to US President Donald Trump’s tweet suggesting there could be more trade talks with China after all. It was sufficient for a modest rally, after the tariff-induced sell off last week. The markets remain fixated by the twin stories of possible rate cuts to come, … Continue reading “The G7 solves nothing”

Brexit – opportunity in uncertainty?

The UK is set to leave the EU on 31 October. Under new Prime Minister Boris Johnson the prospect of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit – once viewed by many as unthinkable – is now a real possibility.  The questions are: what might be the fallout if the UK crashed out of the EU? And what would … Continue reading “Brexit – opportunity in uncertainty?”