Budget November 2017: Third time lucky?

If the Chancellor suffers from claustrophobia, he’ll have been having a hard time of it in recent weeks. Mr Hammond has been hemmed in on one side by sobering economic and fiscal forecasts; on another by public services and national infrastructure showing the strain after seven years of austerity; and on a third by members … Continue reading “Budget November 2017: Third time lucky?”

How to invest in times of political change

The last few years have thrown up a series of political surprises. Rank outsiders overturning the odds have become so normal that equity markets have learnt to brace for impact and as a result, those impacts have become more muted. Political leaders and commentators appear to have accepted that old rules may not hold even … Continue reading “How to invest in times of political change”

The Republicans fall out and the dollar weakens

One of the surprises for markets this year has been the weakness of the dollar. Last year, investors built up large speculative positions expecting the dollar to go better. The US was beginning to increase its interest rates and would in due course reduce its stockpile of government bonds held by the Fed. As more … Continue reading “The Republicans fall out and the dollar weakens”

The big election risk to pensions

If Europe’s electoral calendar wasn’t already packed enough, Theresa May’s decision to go to the polls has added another event that will impact markets. The motivations for the early election are obvious. Polls have given the Conservatives a heady 15-20 point lead over Labour during recent months, which could see Mrs May’s narrow sub-20 seat … Continue reading “The big election risk to pensions”

Why Trump makes the case for emerging markets

Donald Trump’s first weeks as US president are turning out to be just as controversial as his bruising election campaign. A flurry of executive orders on border controls, trade and healthcare has dominated headlines, causing dismay and galvanising opposition. The drama unfolding on a daily basis makes the modest comeback that developing markets have been … Continue reading “Why Trump makes the case for emerging markets”

Trump in the White House – all expectations out the window

The election of Donald Trump as the next US president has been a game-changer thus far for fixed income markets, upending all expectations of what will happen next. One thing is for sure, though: Trump’s policies will have a major, far-reaching impact on bond markets. Trump has promised two broad changes – greater fiscal stimulus … Continue reading “Trump in the White House – all expectations out the window”