Does the US have enough firepower to fight the next recession?

With interest rates already near record lows, what’s left in the Fed’s arsenal to fight the next recession? Low starting interest rates means that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to expand its policy toolkit to fight an economic downturn. But if this proves insufficient, fiscal policy need to pick up the slack. The go-to … Continue reading “Does the US have enough firepower to fight the next recession?”

What causes recessions, and can we predict them?

The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a mixture of circumstances, judgement and luck. The severity of the recession following the global financial crisis (GFC), coupled with the slowness of the subsequent recovery, has … Continue reading “What causes recessions, and can we predict them?”

Recession looks very unlikely in the UK

It is unlikely that there will be a recession in the UK this year or in 2017. In March, the Treasury forecast 2% growth for this year and 2.2% growth for next. Just before the referendum campaign began, the Treasury set out its fear that a Leave vote could put the UK into recession, owing … Continue reading “Recession looks very unlikely in the UK”