Why policy reform is the key to China’s demographic challenge

It is well known that China faces an ageing problem. The popular narrative has it that China surged up the growth league tables on the back of its giant population, reaping years of demographic dividends to become the world’s second largest economy. In this narrative, China’s population is now ageing and so the growth story … Continue reading “Why policy reform is the key to China’s demographic challenge”

Is the UK stuck in Brexit limbo?

The UK has been granted its second extension to the Article 50 deadline, averting a no-deal Brexit that would have happened on 12 April. The UK now has until 31 October to ratify the current Withdrawal Agreement, although there was some disagreement amongst other EU members as to how much longer the UK should be … Continue reading “Is the UK stuck in Brexit limbo?”

Fed turns more dovish and signals an end to rate hikes

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has lowered its projections for US growth and inflation and reduced its expectations for interest rates. The “dot plot” published after last night’s meeting shows no rate hikes this year and only one in 2020.  Tighter financial conditions At his press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell said growth was slowing by … Continue reading “Fed turns more dovish and signals an end to rate hikes”

Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead

It seems clear to us that the world investors have got used to over the last few years is very different to the one we need to get accustomed to in the years to come. We have identified a number of economic forces and disruptive forces we think will shape the investment landscape ahead of … Continue reading “Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead”

Does the US have enough firepower to fight the next recession?

With interest rates already near record lows, what’s left in the Fed’s arsenal to fight the next recession? Low starting interest rates means that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to expand its policy toolkit to fight an economic downturn. But if this proves insufficient, fiscal policy need to pick up the slack. The go-to … Continue reading “Does the US have enough firepower to fight the next recession?”

Is Brazil the new Saudi Arabia?

Could forestry’s importance in reducing carbon emissions and the rising cost of carbon credits change the world economy?  Forestry is a key element of the carbon emissions reduction puzzle. Trees cover 31% of the world’s land surface, equal to just over 4 billion hectares1. Each hectare of forest removes about 10 tons of carbon dioxide … Continue reading “Is Brazil the new Saudi Arabia?”

Are investors too pessimistic on European shares?

European equities had a tough 2018 with the benchmark MSCI Europe index falling 10.6% over the year. Trade wars, reduced support from central banks and slower economic growth were among the factors that saw higher risk assets such as equities fall out of favour. Despite the difficult global backdrop, the eurozone economy continued to expand … Continue reading “Are investors too pessimistic on European shares?”

Brexit plan B looks like plan A as prime minister rules out delay

The government risks losing control to parliament but probability of no deal remains as high as ever.  Having survived a vote of no confidence, Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to update the House of Commons on the government’s “plan B” for Brexit. In her statement, May promised to work with members of parliament (MPs) … Continue reading “Brexit plan B looks like plan A as prime minister rules out delay”

How trade wars have affected emerging market returns

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a measure of emerging markets (EM) equities, was down 14.3% in 2018, but this masked a considerable dispersion of returns, particularly in US dollar terms. Turkey was the year’s worst performer, thanks to a collapse in the lira, with equities losing investors 57.6% in dollar terms. The best performing major … Continue reading “How trade wars have affected emerging market returns”

29 reasons not to invest in the stock market

Wars, disasters, economic strife and political instability have been persistent themes over the last three decades and they can affect people’s attitude towards investing. In many cases they make an already tough decision to part with your money and invest even harder, leading some to not invest at all. Behavioural scientists have a name for … Continue reading “29 reasons not to invest in the stock market”

How the Brexit delay has moved markets – and what it means for the economy

As Theresa May meets European leaders seeking a better Brexit deal, the UK economy heads for a period of heightened uncertainty and stagflation. Markets faced further uncertainty after the Prime Minister Theresa May began a series of European meetings in the hope of securing an improved deal on Brexit. However, Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the … Continue reading “How the Brexit delay has moved markets – and what it means for the economy”

Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead

It seems clear to us that the world investors have got used to over the last few years is very different to the one we need to get accustomed to in the years to come. We have identified a number of economic forces and disruptive forces we think will shape the investment landscape ahead of … Continue reading “Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead”

UK economic outlook hinges on May selling deal

The UK government and European Commission have announced that the broad terms of the UK’s Withdrawal Agreement have been finalised. This lays the path for completion in the next few weeks, and the UK entering a transition period following its exit from the European Union on 29 March 2019. The 585-page draft agreement follows most … Continue reading “UK economic outlook hinges on May selling deal”

China’s growth surprise is just the start

With the impact of tariffs yet to show up in the data, and the looming threat of a property slowdown, the larger-than-expected slowdown in Chinese growth is a taste of things to come. The larger-than-expected slowdown in reported Chinese GDP, to 6.5% from 6.7% in the second quarter, has seemingly spooked markets and pushed policymakers … Continue reading “China’s growth surprise is just the start”