Are we witnessing the US dollar’s fall from grace?

A world in which money is scarce might appear to be a far-fetched idea. But for US banks in the business of taking deposits and making loans, this has become a reality. The chart below shows a global shortage of US dollars has emerged, shown in the left hand vertical axis in  billions. It has … Continue reading “Are we witnessing the US dollar’s fall from grace?”

UK economy rebounds to avoid recession

Unless the economy improves and a smooth Brexit is achieved, interest rates may be lowered.  The first release of UK GDP for the third quarter shows the economy avoided a technical recession. Real GDP growth was 0.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to -0.2% in the second quarter, although the latest figure did disappoint consensus expectations of 0.4%. … Continue reading “UK economy rebounds to avoid recession”

Bank of England takes dovish turn, but for how long?

The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates at 0.75% as expected. However, there was a surprise as two members of the monetary policy committee voted to cut rates. The more dovish1 vote (7-2 rather than the widely expected 9-0) came alongside a downgrade to the bank’s global growth assumptions. Weaker UK growth is also … Continue reading “Bank of England takes dovish turn, but for how long?”

Smooth Brexit could be on cards as election looms

A smooth Brexit could remove some of the fog of uncertainty over the UK economic outlook, a prospect made more likely by the agreement to extend the deadline to 31 January 2020. EU President, Donald Tusk, has announced that the EU has agreed in principle an extension to the Brexit deadline to 31 January 2020. … Continue reading “Smooth Brexit could be on cards as election looms”

The six biggest bull runs since 1962 (and their corrections)

The current bull market in US stocks started in March 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis and is the longest in recent history, beating the rally between July 1962 and May 1970 by over four years. At the time of writing, the bull market is still going. US stocks are up more … Continue reading “The six biggest bull runs since 1962 (and their corrections)”

Disruption from climate change is only just beginning for investors

Financial markets remain unprepared for the extent of disruption that climate change will bring, according to a new report. In September, the United Nation’s Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) – a network of investors whose members include 500 global asset managers – released a report concluding markets have not priced in the coming policy response … Continue reading “Disruption from climate change is only just beginning for investors”

Why as an investor I’m looking through Brexit fears

Following the twists and turns in Westminster of the past few weeks I expect many more market participants will simply place UK equities in the “too difficult” basket. Anecdotal stories of overseas investors selling their last UK stocks could start doing the rounds again. Brexit and political uncertainty have been a drag on UK equities, … Continue reading “Why as an investor I’m looking through Brexit fears”

Has value investing been disrupted?

Disruption is a major theme in stock markets today with companies such as Amazon and Uber challenging the traditional approach to their respective industries. Such companies are an example of so-called “growth” stocks, with investors attracted by their prospects for expansion and future revenue growth. Investors in “value” stocks, in contrast, focus less on a … Continue reading “Has value investing been disrupted?”

How does geopolitics impact investment returns and what can you do about it?

Schroder’s economists have analysed the effect geopolitical risk can have on investors’ portfolios. Should investors simply hold their nerve during volatile times? Or is it better to entrust fund managers able to take a more dynamic approach? Geopolitics can significantly impact investment returns; whether it’s trade wars, actual wars, populist politicians or terrorist attacks. Geopolitical … Continue reading “How does geopolitics impact investment returns and what can you do about it?”

Ten things every investor needs to know about offshore wind power

The solar and onshore wind industries have long been areas of focus for climate change investors, but offshore wind has always lagged behind because of its higher cost. However, that is set to change, with substantial growth likely in the sector over the coming years, as offshore wind approaches cost competitiveness with conventional electricity generation. … Continue reading “Ten things every investor needs to know about offshore wind power”

How long will you live and what does it mean for your investments?

Latest life expectancy data shows that your money will need to last a lot longer than you might be thinking.  Thirty-five years ago, an average 60-year old man could have expected to live an extra 18 years, to age 78. Today, the average 60-year old man should expect to live to 85. That’s according to … Continue reading “How long will you live and what does it mean for your investments?”

Will the UK economy slip into recession?

Disappointing GDP data shows the UK economy contracted in the second quarter and raises the risk of the country entering a technical recession. The UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter, following 0.5% growth at the start of the year. What was behind the data? A sharp drop in manufacturing output (-2.3%) over … Continue reading “Will the UK economy slip into recession?”

Boris Johnson: the challenges faced by the new UK PM

Boris Johnson has won the Conservative Party leadership contest to succeed Theresa May as Prime Minister. The former Foreign Secretary and Mayor of London beat Jeremy Hunt, the current Foreign Secretary by a wide margin: 66% to 34% of the votes. From the outset, Johnson must navigate a deeply divided party, and a shrinking majority … Continue reading “Boris Johnson: the challenges faced by the new UK PM”

Tough times for the UK may force rate cut

The UK economy is struggling to stay above water. Brexit uncertainty has hit confidence, causing many companies to postpone or cancel investment projects. Even households are now cutting back. According to the latest survey from the British Retail Consortium, average sales growth weakened to just 0.6% in the 12 months to June, which is the … Continue reading “Tough times for the UK may force rate cut”

Why I’m backing a consumer comeback in Europe

Worries over slowing global growth and rising trade tensions hit European share prices hard at the end of 2018. While early 2019 saw a rally, there remains considerable scepticism over the prospects for the European economy and its listed companies. I think much of this scepticism is misplaced and the role of the European consumer … Continue reading “Why I’m backing a consumer comeback in Europe”