Brexit plan B looks like plan A as prime minister rules out delay

The government risks losing control to parliament but probability of no deal remains as high as ever.  Having survived a vote of no confidence, Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to update the House of Commons on the government’s “plan B” for Brexit. In her statement, May promised to work with members of parliament (MPs) … Continue reading “Brexit plan B looks like plan A as prime minister rules out delay”

How trade wars have affected emerging market returns

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a measure of emerging markets (EM) equities, was down 14.3% in 2018, but this masked a considerable dispersion of returns, particularly in US dollar terms. Turkey was the year’s worst performer, thanks to a collapse in the lira, with equities losing investors 57.6% in dollar terms. The best performing major … Continue reading “How trade wars have affected emerging market returns”

29 reasons not to invest in the stock market

Wars, disasters, economic strife and political instability have been persistent themes over the last three decades and they can affect people’s attitude towards investing. In many cases they make an already tough decision to part with your money and invest even harder, leading some to not invest at all. Behavioural scientists have a name for … Continue reading “29 reasons not to invest in the stock market”

How the Brexit delay has moved markets – and what it means for the economy

As Theresa May meets European leaders seeking a better Brexit deal, the UK economy heads for a period of heightened uncertainty and stagflation. Markets faced further uncertainty after the Prime Minister Theresa May began a series of European meetings in the hope of securing an improved deal on Brexit. However, Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the … Continue reading “How the Brexit delay has moved markets – and what it means for the economy”

Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead

It seems clear to us that the world investors have got used to over the last few years is very different to the one we need to get accustomed to in the years to come. We have identified a number of economic forces and disruptive forces we think will shape the investment landscape ahead of … Continue reading “Inescapable investment truths for the decade ahead”

UK economic outlook hinges on May selling deal

The UK government and European Commission have announced that the broad terms of the UK’s Withdrawal Agreement have been finalised. This lays the path for completion in the next few weeks, and the UK entering a transition period following its exit from the European Union on 29 March 2019. The 585-page draft agreement follows most … Continue reading “UK economic outlook hinges on May selling deal”

China’s growth surprise is just the start

With the impact of tariffs yet to show up in the data, and the looming threat of a property slowdown, the larger-than-expected slowdown in Chinese growth is a taste of things to come. The larger-than-expected slowdown in reported Chinese GDP, to 6.5% from 6.7% in the second quarter, has seemingly spooked markets and pushed policymakers … Continue reading “China’s growth surprise is just the start”

Bond vigilantes at the gates in Italy

The 2019 budget target was unveiled on 27 September 2019, with the government defying the advice of Giovanni Tria, Italy’s Minister of Economy and Finance. Tria had recommended a deficit1 of 1.6% of GDP; however, the target has been set at 2.4% of GDP. Italy is now on a collision course with the European Commission, … Continue reading “Bond vigilantes at the gates in Italy”

Trade wars step up, more to come

The US has announced tariffs on another $200 billion of imports from China, citing ongoing concerns over the theft of technology and forced transfer of intellectual property. The tariffs take effect next week and are initially set at 10% rising to 25% from 1 January next year. China has yet to respond, but the White … Continue reading “Trade wars step up, more to come”

Growth to slow as trade wars escalate

As a deeper and more prolonged trade war is anticipated between the US and China, we have downgraded our global growth expectations and forecast slower growth in both 2018 and 2019. Much of the slowdown can be attributed to the effect of trade wars. Europe and Japan disappoint Two of the world’s most export-oriented economies, … Continue reading “Growth to slow as trade wars escalate”

Cyber-risk: how investors can prepare for the unpredictable

Cyber crime continues to create significant costs for companies globally, but understanding the risk means going beyond a formulaic assessment of policies.  Digital data has grown exponentially in recent years, spurred by increased penetration of mobile devices and consumption of online services. The rapid expansion in the volume of data companies store, many of which … Continue reading “Cyber-risk: how investors can prepare for the unpredictable”

Turkey trouble: what’s behind it and what does it mean for emerging markets?

Turkey’s currency, the lira, has plunged 68% against the dollar since the start of 2018. Year-to-date its stock market has fallen nearly 18% and inflation hit 16% in July, more than three times the central bank’s target. Turkey’s current crisis has been a long time coming. The early warning signs were apparent in the 2013 … Continue reading “Turkey trouble: what’s behind it and what does it mean for emerging markets?”

Brexit risk fails to deter BoE from rate hike

The Bank of England (BoE) has raised its main policy interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% – its highest level since March 2009 and the first hike above the post-financial crisis level. The Bank backed away from raising rates in February owing to a significant slowdown in growth. However, data on retail sales and production … Continue reading “Brexit risk fails to deter BoE from rate hike”

The potential income shock awaiting pension savers

A global study of investor attitudes finds that those close to retirement expect to replace 74% of their salary when they give up work. The reality for those already retired is very different. After a lifetime of saving, investors may be in for a shock when they come to retire, the results of a global … Continue reading “The potential income shock awaiting pension savers”

Brexit vote two years on: are we heading for a hard Brexit?

Two years have passed since the UK’s historic referendum on leaving the European Union, yet the big questions over the future relationship with the UK’s biggest trading partner remain unanswered. Will the UK remain in the EU’s customs union? Will it be a member of the single market? Will the UK face tariffs on its … Continue reading “Brexit vote two years on: are we heading for a hard Brexit?”