The US election – just political noise?

The weakness in US equity markets in September appeared to come as a surprise to many investors, despite history pointing to this being seasonally quite typical. After such a strong and persistent rally since the Covid-19 lows of March, profit taking and market consolidation should be seen as a positive rather than a negative. However, … Continue reading “The US election – just political noise?”

Looking back at the markets through September

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Rising infection levels knock sentiment Share prices generally fell during September amid concerns over rising infection levels and their potential impact on economic activity. Investors’ worries were compounded by doubts over Brexit negotiations, continuing friction between the US and China over … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through September”

What will the US elections do to markets?

The question whether Democrats or Republicans will have a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate matters to markets. According to the polls, the Presidential election is Joe Biden’s to lose. He has been comfortably ahead by around 8% in the national polls for some time. He is also ahead in most of the … Continue reading “What will the US elections do to markets?”

Will decarbonisation be the mega-trend of the next decade?

US equities have led global stock markets higher over the past decade. In the last ten years, US equities have returned a stellar 292%, compared to just 73% for global equities (as measured by the MSCI USA Index and MSCI AC World ex US Index respectively, in US dollar terms, as at 31 August 2020). … Continue reading “Will decarbonisation be the mega-trend of the next decade?”

Do shares always win in the long run?

It used to be a common belief of many managers that if you bought and held a portfolio of shares over any market cycle you would earn a decent return. This argument may be changing. The argument went that the sharp cycles in shares were based on shallower and shorter cycles for economies. They might … Continue reading “Do shares always win in the long run?”

Riding the central bank stimulus

The major issues today are how fast the recovery will be, how widespread will it be, and how much permanent damage will remain. Bulls in the stock market are excited by the recovery cycle. It now looks as if all the major economies have passed the worst of their troughs in output and incomes brought … Continue reading “Riding the central bank stimulus”

What could a Biden presidency mean for climate change investing?

Joe Biden in the White House, and potentially Democrats in control of the Senate too, could turbo-charge climate change as an investment theme. The US response to Covid-19 looks set to be the dominant election issue as we head towards the November polls. Myriad other issues also compete for voters’ attention, and climate change often … Continue reading “What could a Biden presidency mean for climate change investing?”

Investors expect even higher returns from the stock market in years ahead – despite coronavirus shock

Savers predict annual returns of 10.9% from their stock market investments, even as Covid-19 halted the longest economic expansion on record and plunged the world into deep recession. Investors continue to hope for double-digit yearly total returns from their portfolios, despite the huge blow inflicted on the global economy by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to … Continue reading “Investors expect even higher returns from the stock market in years ahead – despite coronavirus shock”

Five key investor questions on China answered

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, our team considers the relative prospects for China’s economic recovery and stock market resurgence. What the pandemic has highlighted is large differences in state capacity to manage this crisis. Will China experience a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery? We are still at the beginning of an enormous economic and social repair job. Governments … Continue reading “Five key investor questions on China answered”

Why do markets rise even when the outlook is bleak?

The global economy is on track for its worst recession in nearly 100 years, yet April was the market’s best monthly performance in three decades and they continued to rise in May. Why?  The first quarter of 2020 has been tough for the global economy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. For example, a … Continue reading “Why do markets rise even when the outlook is bleak?”

Covid-19: why the tech giants have emerged as winners

While many businesses struggle to survive under the global lockdown, the largest technology companies remain afloat and in some cases are even thriving. Microsoft has reported a surge in usage of its cloud computing service Azure, as millions of people work from home. Amazon is hiring an additional 75,000 workers, on top of the 100,000 … Continue reading “Covid-19: why the tech giants have emerged as winners”

Same virus, different market reactions

Coronavirus dominates share market thinking and brought on the big bear dip in most markets. It does not, however, seem to be the severity of the virus that differentiates between the different countries. This week the value of companies quoted on the US Nasdaq index continued to outpace the value of all the listed companies … Continue reading “Same virus, different market reactions”

Market update – April 2020

It is now clear that the world economy is experiencing a sudden stop without precedent in peace time. During wars, economies generally operate at a flat out pace, and in the UK, the WWII induced return to full employment, post the 1930s Depression, necessitated higher taxes, not only to fund the government deficit, but also … Continue reading “Market update – April 2020”

Looking back at the markets through March

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review March Meltdown The extended bull run came to an abrupt end in March as the coronavirus continued to spread into Europe and America, and a collapse in confidence pushed share indices into bear-market territory. Investors suffered exceptionally high levels of volatility … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through March”

‘Lockdown for longer’ is a major market threat

Stock markets have staged a significant recovery from the Coronavirus slump, rallying sharply from lows hit in March. But gains of 10% or more are common in bear markets – and the crisis at many of the world’s businesses has only just begun. A wave of insolvencies will puncture the optimism, as companies with too … Continue reading “‘Lockdown for longer’ is a major market threat”