China drives into global trouble

China may discover that more countries in the world now intend to stand up to Beijing’s actions, as the US finds a rare political unity in opposing its actions from technology to Hong Kong. In an ironic twist to the global story, China has relaxed its economy more and is making better progress with its … Continue reading “China drives into global trouble”

The biggest winner from coronavirus is Donald Trump

It should come as a surprise to no-one that the figures from China about coronavirus infections and deaths have been massaged to make them look better. As the crisis in Xi Jinping’s government from his mishandling of the situation mounts, the biggest winner is now becoming clear. It’s looking more and more likely that Donald … Continue reading “The biggest winner from coronavirus is Donald Trump”

The US-EU economic battle

Donald Trump spoke out at Davos, condemning the people he called the “perennial prophets of doom” for forecasting climate and other disasters. He said they “are the heirs of yesterday’s foolish fortune tellers. They want us to do badly”. He did not name the EU or individual European countries, but the implication was clear. His … Continue reading “The US-EU economic battle”

Looking back at the markets through December

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Double-digit gains in 2019 Despite a year that was filled with political and social upheaval – from the trade war between the US and China, through Brexit, to the civil unrest in Hong Kong – many world markets achieved double-digit gains … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through December”

The biggest victim of US tariffs in 2020 could be the EU

The tariff battle between Washington and Beijing is far from over, but the biggest battle for US trade hawks over the next 12 months is likely to be with Europe. The global trade slowdown has already hit the European economy hard. Brussels has been forced to cut its growth forecasts for the eurozone to its … Continue reading “The biggest victim of US tariffs in 2020 could be the EU”

The impact of US foreign policy on markets

Trade restrictions and tariffs are the main response of the Trump administration to foreign disagreements, but there are some positives too. Donald Trump moves markets. He watches them regularly and tries to influence them by what he says and what he does. He sees a rising US share market as proof that he is making … Continue reading “The impact of US foreign policy on markets”

A cyber-curtain is set to divide the world

A new Cold War looks likely as the US and China increasingly diverge and fall into dispute. What are the implications for investors? The strong exchanges on technology between the US and China point to a world where there are two different systems, with a cyber-curtain descending between them both. Meanwhile, in a series of … Continue reading “A cyber-curtain is set to divide the world”

The G7 solves nothing

The meeting of leaders over the weekend in Biarritz led to US President Donald Trump’s tweet suggesting there could be more trade talks with China after all. It was sufficient for a modest rally, after the tariff-induced sell off last week. The markets remain fixated by the twin stories of possible rate cuts to come, … Continue reading “The G7 solves nothing”

There’ll be no swift resolution to this trade war

As Donald Trump threatens to put tariffs on all imports from China and Beijing tells its state-owned organisations to stop importing US agricultural products, the trade war looks set to drag on. At the end of last week’s trade talks between the US and China, there were no signs of a breakthrough. Beijing made a … Continue reading “There’ll be no swift resolution to this trade war”

Markets learn to live with some protectionism

On Monday 15th July, President Trump lent the White House lawn to US manufacturers to celebrate the ability of the US to make things for itself. He explained that it is a win-win situation if the US buys products made just down the road, with more and better-paid jobs resulting from the purchases. He signed … Continue reading “Markets learn to live with some protectionism”

Unwise to chase the rally in European equities

Although the eurozone economy is struggling, European assets have performed strongly in recent weeks as policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) have made it clear that they are ready to implement another round of monetary stimulus. Nevertheless, we remain pessimistic about the eurozone economy’s prospects and sceptical of the ECB’s ability to stimulate growth. … Continue reading “Unwise to chase the rally in European equities”

Looking back at the markets through June

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Brexit: no further forward   Global market review The third anniversary of the Brexit referendum came and went in June, and still the issue of Brexit remained up in the air. As the clock ticked towards the extended deadline of 31 October, the Conservative … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through June”

Looking back at the markets through May

Although the US and China had been widely expected to agree a trade deal, US President Donald Trump instead confounded hopes by announcing that tariffs on over US$200 billion-worth of imports from China would increase from 10% to 25%.  In response, China raised tariffs on US$60 billion-worth of US goods. Share prices fell heavily in … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through May”

Will a Chinese boycott really hurt the US?

As the US trade war with China accelerates, Beijing is preparing to use one of its most effective weapons – people power. There is likely to be boycotts ahead. The US trade dispute with China escalated this week, after Beijing deployed a powerful weapon in its armoury – people power. The Chinese government warned its … Continue reading “Will a Chinese boycott really hurt the US?”

Who will pay as US-China trade wars intensify?

The latest developments suggest that trade tensions between the US and China will be more protracted than previously expected. The US recently announced it is raising tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China to 25% from 10%, and China has responded by increasing tariffs on $60 billion of imports from the US. The US … Continue reading “Who will pay as US-China trade wars intensify?”