Will a Chinese boycott really hurt the US?

As the US trade war with China accelerates, Beijing is preparing to use one of its most effective weapons – people power. There is likely to be boycotts ahead. The US trade dispute with China escalated this week, after Beijing deployed a powerful weapon in its armoury – people power. The Chinese government warned its … Continue reading “Will a Chinese boycott really hurt the US?”

Who will pay as US-China trade wars intensify?

The latest developments suggest that trade tensions between the US and China will be more protracted than previously expected. The US recently announced it is raising tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China to 25% from 10%, and China has responded by increasing tariffs on $60 billion of imports from the US. The US … Continue reading “Who will pay as US-China trade wars intensify?”

The Middle East stirs some old worries

America is intensifying its policy against Iran in the Gulf, and challenging more EU policy over Iran and energy as well as trade. Donald Trump has spent the last week moving markets. His decision to push back hard on China before agreeing a trade deal led to sharp sell offs in the Shanghai market and … Continue reading “The Middle East stirs some old worries”

Will the US-China trade deal live up to expectations?

President Trump usually encourages high expectations of what he and the US might achieve. A deal-maker by instinct and long business practice, he has made much of his ability to get the country a better deal. These claims are now on trial as we approach the end game of the US-China trade talks. The President … Continue reading “Will the US-China trade deal live up to expectations?”

Trade: Will Trump rediscover the art of the deal?

The markets have two problems with US President Trump’s approach to the trade talks. The first is he is so unpredictable that it makes it very difficult for commentators and forecasters to come up with a well-based vision of what the future holds. The second is there is a nagging worry that the US China … Continue reading “Trade: Will Trump rediscover the art of the deal?”

Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war

Optimism that the trade war that has ravaged global markets could be resolved soon is mounting. China’s Ministry of Commerce said that last week’s discussions with US representatives were extensive and had established a foundation for the resolution of each country’s concerns. In fact, it appears that things are moving into place for Donald Trump … Continue reading “Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war”

China and Taiwan tensions build

President Xi Jinping’s statement that Taiwan is properly part of China and will be fully integrated one day is not new policy. Nonetheless it seemed to upset the Hong Kong market, and made investors wonder whether there was to be a new tougher phase in China’s relations with the very successful island economy of Taiwan. … Continue reading “China and Taiwan tensions build”

2018: A year to forget

2018 will be a year that many investors would rather forget. A lucky few will still be looking for an overall gain for the year, but the past few months have proved extremely uncomfortable. What have been the highs and lows of the year?  Research by Willis Owen shows that eight sectors delivered a positive … Continue reading “2018: A year to forget”

G20 stare down does not de-escalate tensions

It would be easy to see last weekend’s G20 meeting a heralding a thaw in the US-China trade war. But it hasn’t. There are some positives. It looks increasingly likely that the US will not put in place a fresh 10-25% tariff hike in January on $250bn of Chinese exports, as most had thought. It … Continue reading “G20 stare down does not de-escalate tensions”

Trade deal leaves considerable uncertainty

President Trump decided to sit down with President Xi after all at the G20 Summit in Argentina. He had blown hot and cold about whether it was worthwhile to do so, and had threatened to carry on with his increases in tariffs on Chinese goods ahead of the meeting. Markets should be growing used to … Continue reading “Trade deal leaves considerable uncertainty”

How much damage will the trade war do?

Trade wars are not good news. Mr Trump’s imposition of tariffs on another $200bn of Chinese exports helped drag eastern markets down ahead of the event. Forecasters and pundits fear that the tariffs will curb exports and activity in Chinese factories, push up the price level a little in the US and adversely affect the … Continue reading “How much damage will the trade war do?”

Trade wars step up, more to come

The US has announced tariffs on another $200 billion of imports from China, citing ongoing concerns over the theft of technology and forced transfer of intellectual property. The tariffs take effect next week and are initially set at 10% rising to 25% from 1 January next year. China has yet to respond, but the White … Continue reading “Trade wars step up, more to come”

Growth to slow as trade wars escalate

As a deeper and more prolonged trade war is anticipated between the US and China, we have downgraded our global growth expectations and forecast slower growth in both 2018 and 2019. Much of the slowdown can be attributed to the effect of trade wars. Europe and Japan disappoint Two of the world’s most export-oriented economies, … Continue reading “Growth to slow as trade wars escalate”

Trade wars should not derail growth

Markets worry about a trade war, and relax when they think it is about to be settled. Mr Trump’s attempts to negotiate new trading terms are often called a war but it’s actually a hard negotiation. The President threatens or imposes higher tariffs with a view to getting the other side to propose lower ones … Continue reading “Trade wars should not derail growth”

Is the trade war really all about the mid-term elections?

US President Donald Trump’s trade war could damage the global economy, but is he just playing politics? Steve Mnuchin did not hold any formal meetings with China at this weekend’s meeting of G20 finance ministers in Buenos Aires. This is despite the US Treasury Secretary indicating recently in Congress that he was prepared to reopen … Continue reading “Is the trade war really all about the mid-term elections?”