Will a Chinese boycott really hurt the US?

As the US trade war with China accelerates, Beijing is preparing to use one of its most effective weapons – people power. There is likely to be boycotts ahead. The US trade dispute with China escalated this week, after Beijing deployed a powerful weapon in its armoury – people power. The Chinese government warned its … Continue reading “Will a Chinese boycott really hurt the US?”

Something has changed in the Trump administration

Donald Trump has put power back into his tweets. His recent announcements on technology exports and trade have sent markets lower. The tweets are backed by Executive Orders and by follow-up action from the relevant departments of government. It reminds us that something has changed in the Trump administration. The President has found a team … Continue reading “Something has changed in the Trump administration”

The Middle East stirs some old worries

America is intensifying its policy against Iran in the Gulf, and challenging more EU policy over Iran and energy as well as trade. Donald Trump has spent the last week moving markets. His decision to push back hard on China before agreeing a trade deal led to sharp sell offs in the Shanghai market and … Continue reading “The Middle East stirs some old worries”

Trump’s bid to take on the EU could crush the German economy

The EU’s Trade Commissioner held out an olive branch to Donald Trump last week as the bloc tries to prevent tariffs being put on the auto sector – but the move looks likely to fail. An escalating trade dispute between Brussels and Washington now appears inevitable – and Germany will feel most of the pain … Continue reading “Trump’s bid to take on the EU could crush the German economy”

Will the US-China trade deal live up to expectations?

President Trump usually encourages high expectations of what he and the US might achieve. A deal-maker by instinct and long business practice, he has made much of his ability to get the country a better deal. These claims are now on trial as we approach the end game of the US-China trade talks. The President … Continue reading “Will the US-China trade deal live up to expectations?”

Germany will pay the price for Italy’s provocation of Trump

The Italians have joined China’s controversial “New Silk Road” programme, a move that is likely to stoke the ire of Washington. At the weekend, Italian populists handed Donald Trump yet another reason to turn his trade guns on Europe, increasing the risk of a German recession. At a signing ceremony in Rome, Chinese President Xi … Continue reading “Germany will pay the price for Italy’s provocation of Trump”

Does the Trump-Kim summit matter for investors?

If North Korea gives up its nuclear arsenal, Donald Trump has promised that the country will have an “awesome” economic future with a wealth of opportunities on offer. The US president is not alone in seeing vast potential in the reclusive Asian nation. Billionaire Jim Rogers, one of the world’s most successful investors, famously said … Continue reading “Does the Trump-Kim summit matter for investors?”

Trade: Will Trump rediscover the art of the deal?

The markets have two problems with US President Trump’s approach to the trade talks. The first is he is so unpredictable that it makes it very difficult for commentators and forecasters to come up with a well-based vision of what the future holds. The second is there is a nagging worry that the US China … Continue reading “Trade: Will Trump rediscover the art of the deal?”

Is the US technology industry being defanged?

Paypal founder Peter Thiel predicted in his 2014 Wall Street Journal essay ‘Competition is for losers’ that Silicon Valley would become the centre of the global economy. He claimed that by operating under a set of rules that involve little competition or regulation, his own company, along with the likes of Facebook, Amazon and Google … Continue reading “Is the US technology industry being defanged?”

Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war

Optimism that the trade war that has ravaged global markets could be resolved soon is mounting. China’s Ministry of Commerce said that last week’s discussions with US representatives were extensive and had established a foundation for the resolution of each country’s concerns. In fact, it appears that things are moving into place for Donald Trump … Continue reading “Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war”

G20 stare down does not de-escalate tensions

It would be easy to see last weekend’s G20 meeting a heralding a thaw in the US-China trade war. But it hasn’t. There are some positives. It looks increasingly likely that the US will not put in place a fresh 10-25% tariff hike in January on $250bn of Chinese exports, as most had thought. It … Continue reading “G20 stare down does not de-escalate tensions”

Trade deal leaves considerable uncertainty

President Trump decided to sit down with President Xi after all at the G20 Summit in Argentina. He had blown hot and cold about whether it was worthwhile to do so, and had threatened to carry on with his increases in tariffs on Chinese goods ahead of the meeting. Markets should be growing used to … Continue reading “Trade deal leaves considerable uncertainty”

Trade and banking matters hit China

The Chinese economy is one of the two giant economies in the global market. We have got used to relying on China to produce growth of more than 6%, and to supply a wide range of manufactured items at attractive prices. The combined effects of a huge expansion of Chinese manufacturing capacity, and the digital … Continue reading “Trade and banking matters hit China”

Will Trump policy hasten the collapse of the dollar?

The world’s acceptance of the dollar as its reserve currency has been positive for Americans. But with Donald Trump’s America First policy, will the world move away from the greenback. When world leaders laughed at Donald Trump’s comments in his address to the United Nations last week, it was an insight into the new world … Continue reading “Will Trump policy hasten the collapse of the dollar?”