Patience required on the path to recovery

The growing confidence that 2021 will be much better than the year we have just endured is probably correct. That these positive emotions are stirred over Christmas and new year is right and proper – as feelings of optimism and renewal are central themes in our winter celebrations. There is also real evidence to support … Continue reading “Patience required on the path to recovery”

Care needed with big power politics

The pandemic and the stimulus packages have preoccupied markets for most of this year but risks relating to the aims of the great powers are too important to ignore. The growing tensions between China and the US are likely to characterise the Biden era as much as Trump. One of the few things Democrats and … Continue reading “Care needed with big power politics”

Biden presidency could trigger global reallocation to Asia

Less confrontational style likely to lower headline risk and may drive global investors to refocus on the fundamental strengths of Asia’s economies and financial markets. Asian financial markets could reap the benefits if US president-elect Joe Biden proves to be more conventional than his predecessor in the White House, potentially triggering a reallocation of global … Continue reading “Biden presidency could trigger global reallocation to Asia”

Looking back at the markets through October

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review The “second wave” breaks Share prices fell heavily around the world during October as Covid-19 infection rates continued to rise. Governments intensified their lockdown measures, triggering concerns over prospects for economic recovery. “In the UK, rising infection rates led the Government … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through October”

Fed repression could turn to Fed regret

At its latest policy meeting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled that interest rates would be close to zero for the next three years as it aimed to hit its new objective of a 2% average inflation target and maximum employment. The central bank’s economic projections show that it intends to run the economy “hot” … Continue reading “Fed repression could turn to Fed regret”

Looking back at the markets through September

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Rising infection levels knock sentiment Share prices generally fell during September amid concerns over rising infection levels and their potential impact on economic activity. Investors’ worries were compounded by doubts over Brexit negotiations, continuing friction between the US and China over … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through September”

What will the US elections do to markets?

The question whether Democrats or Republicans will have a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate matters to markets. According to the polls, the Presidential election is Joe Biden’s to lose. He has been comfortably ahead by around 8% in the national polls for some time. He is also ahead in most of the … Continue reading “What will the US elections do to markets?”

Will decarbonisation be the mega-trend of the next decade?

US equities have led global stock markets higher over the past decade. In the last ten years, US equities have returned a stellar 292%, compared to just 73% for global equities (as measured by the MSCI USA Index and MSCI AC World ex US Index respectively, in US dollar terms, as at 31 August 2020). … Continue reading “Will decarbonisation be the mega-trend of the next decade?”

China plans to pull further ahead of the US in 5G

The fractious relationship between the US and China is changing global supply chains. China now plans to leapfrog the US in an essential component of the future economy, increasing divisions further. When Beijing decided that China needed to become an atomic power in the 1960s, its centrally-planned state directed significant resources and resolve into developing … Continue reading “China plans to pull further ahead of the US in 5G”

Looking back at the markets through August

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review   Share price rises defy an uncertain outlook Global share prices generally rose during August as investors took heart from ongoing fiscal and monetary support alongside some encouraging economic data. Nevertheless, the global economic outlook remains “highly uncertain”, according to the World … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through August”

Riding the central bank stimulus

The major issues today are how fast the recovery will be, how widespread will it be, and how much permanent damage will remain. Bulls in the stock market are excited by the recovery cycle. It now looks as if all the major economies have passed the worst of their troughs in output and incomes brought … Continue reading “Riding the central bank stimulus”

Looking back at the markets through July

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review  The other “R” number … Recession Early in July, investors were buoyed by news of progress in the development of coronavirus vaccines. However, as the month continued, optimism was tempered by a surge in infection rates in countries including the US, … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through July”

The performance of world markets in the pandemic

Equity-market performance around the world has diverged in response to government stimulus measures and those exposed to the digital revolution. At the end of July, the S&P 500 index of larger US company shares pushed ahead of its starting level this year. Nasdaq powered on, forming more new highs. It has now delivered a 22% … Continue reading “The performance of world markets in the pandemic”

Five key investor questions on China answered

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, our team considers the relative prospects for China’s economic recovery and stock market resurgence. What the pandemic has highlighted is large differences in state capacity to manage this crisis. Will China experience a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery? We are still at the beginning of an enormous economic and social repair job. Governments … Continue reading “Five key investor questions on China answered”

Central banks continue to prop-up markets

The tsunami of money has been unprecedented and is the main reason equity markets have performed as they have. The stimulus measures have been at their largest in the US, where money growth has shot up to 25% for the year. In the Eurozone and the UK, it is a lively but more modest 10%. … Continue reading “Central banks continue to prop-up markets”