Five key investor questions on China answered

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, our team considers the relative prospects for China’s economic recovery and stock market resurgence. What the pandemic has highlighted is large differences in state capacity to manage this crisis. Will China experience a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery? We are still at the beginning of an enormous economic and social repair job. Governments … Continue reading “Five key investor questions on China answered”

Central banks continue to prop-up markets

The tsunami of money has been unprecedented and is the main reason equity markets have performed as they have. The stimulus measures have been at their largest in the US, where money growth has shot up to 25% for the year. In the Eurozone and the UK, it is a lively but more modest 10%. … Continue reading “Central banks continue to prop-up markets”

The beneficiaries of globalisation are right to be worried

The dispute between China and the US is likely to continue for many years as their clash of ideologies changes global trading patterns and supply chains. A senior American politician publicly derided one of the most important British companies on a scale we have not seen since attacks on BP following its oil spill in … Continue reading “The beneficiaries of globalisation are right to be worried”

Is retail investor surge cause for caution?

With a combination of resurgent markets, seemingly ebullient retail investors and a bleak economic outlook, it may be prudent to tread carefully. It’s an old investment cliché that when your taxi driver starts giving you share tips, it’s time to sell. As someone who has been on the receiving end of cabbie investment advice during … Continue reading “Is retail investor surge cause for caution?”

Washington wants to halt US investment in Chinese companies

The controversy over the initial stages of the Covid-19 infection in China has allowed a raft of measures to be put on the table to ensure the superpower advantage remains with the US.  Washington wants to starve Chinese companies of money, with investors required to consider “America first”. In a speech given in the White … Continue reading “Washington wants to halt US investment in Chinese companies”

Looking back at the markets through May

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Pandemic continued to dominate markets The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through May”

Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors

Investors will need to be more agile than ever as Covid-19 reinforces many of the trends driving the world economy prior to the outbreak. “At the beginning of the plague, when there was now no more hope but that the whole city would be visited; when all that had friends or estates in the country … Continue reading “Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors”

Looking back at the markets through April

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Painful consequences Following March’s collapse in share prices, global stock markets made a partial recovery in April, although most major indices still sustained double-digit losses compared with the start of the year. As the coronavirus pandemic continued to cut a swathe … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through April”

Covid-19: why the tech giants have emerged as winners

While many businesses struggle to survive under the global lockdown, the largest technology companies remain afloat and in some cases are even thriving. Microsoft has reported a surge in usage of its cloud computing service Azure, as millions of people work from home. Amazon is hiring an additional 75,000 workers, on top of the 100,000 … Continue reading “Covid-19: why the tech giants have emerged as winners”

Looking back at the markets through March

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review March Meltdown The extended bull run came to an abrupt end in March as the coronavirus continued to spread into Europe and America, and a collapse in confidence pushed share indices into bear-market territory. Investors suffered exceptionally high levels of volatility … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through March”

China standing out among emerging markets

Like those almost everywhere else, emerging markets (EMs) suffered a coronavirus shock in March. Having plunged by nearly a third in the early part of the month, however, EM share prices partly recovered towards the end. Promises of large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus in the US arrested the declines, but EM stocks still had a … Continue reading “China standing out among emerging markets”

Covid-19: Three economic scenarios

Markets are governed by the duration and impact of the many measures being taken to limit and reduce the number of people contracting the COVID-19 virus. This was the week when the western advanced world changed dramatically, with the governments deciding to ban or advise against all events, tourism, entertainment and hospitality outside the home. … Continue reading “Covid-19: Three economic scenarios”

International trade winds and stock markets

If the coronavirus situation escalates, world trade is in for a major supply shock that will damage company earnings and productivity. The outlook remains unclear. There were attacks on the international order of promoting free trade before the coronavirus hit. Many emerging countries refused to make rapid progress to lower tariffs and fewer barriers to … Continue reading “International trade winds and stock markets”

The biggest victim of US tariffs in 2020 could be the EU

The tariff battle between Washington and Beijing is far from over, but the biggest battle for US trade hawks over the next 12 months is likely to be with Europe. The global trade slowdown has already hit the European economy hard. Brussels has been forced to cut its growth forecasts for the eurozone to its … Continue reading “The biggest victim of US tariffs in 2020 could be the EU”

Are we witnessing the US dollar’s fall from grace?

A world in which money is scarce might appear to be a far-fetched idea. But for US banks in the business of taking deposits and making loans, this has become a reality. The chart below shows a global shortage of US dollars has emerged, shown in the left hand vertical axis in  billions. It has … Continue reading “Are we witnessing the US dollar’s fall from grace?”