Looking back at the markets through September

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Rising infection levels knock sentiment Share prices generally fell during September amid concerns over rising infection levels and their potential impact on economic activity. Investors’ worries were compounded by doubts over Brexit negotiations, continuing friction between the US and China over … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through September”

What will the US elections do to markets?

The question whether Democrats or Republicans will have a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate matters to markets. According to the polls, the Presidential election is Joe Biden’s to lose. He has been comfortably ahead by around 8% in the national polls for some time. He is also ahead in most of the … Continue reading “What will the US elections do to markets?”

Will decarbonisation be the mega-trend of the next decade?

US equities have led global stock markets higher over the past decade. In the last ten years, US equities have returned a stellar 292%, compared to just 73% for global equities (as measured by the MSCI USA Index and MSCI AC World ex US Index respectively, in US dollar terms, as at 31 August 2020). … Continue reading “Will decarbonisation be the mega-trend of the next decade?”

China plans to pull further ahead of the US in 5G

The fractious relationship between the US and China is changing global supply chains. China now plans to leapfrog the US in an essential component of the future economy, increasing divisions further. When Beijing decided that China needed to become an atomic power in the 1960s, its centrally-planned state directed significant resources and resolve into developing … Continue reading “China plans to pull further ahead of the US in 5G”

Looking back at the markets through August

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review   Share price rises defy an uncertain outlook Global share prices generally rose during August as investors took heart from ongoing fiscal and monetary support alongside some encouraging economic data. Nevertheless, the global economic outlook remains “highly uncertain”, according to the World … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through August”

Riding the central bank stimulus

The major issues today are how fast the recovery will be, how widespread will it be, and how much permanent damage will remain. Bulls in the stock market are excited by the recovery cycle. It now looks as if all the major economies have passed the worst of their troughs in output and incomes brought … Continue reading “Riding the central bank stimulus”

Looking back at the markets through July

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review  The other “R” number … Recession Early in July, investors were buoyed by news of progress in the development of coronavirus vaccines. However, as the month continued, optimism was tempered by a surge in infection rates in countries including the US, … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through July”

The performance of world markets in the pandemic

Equity-market performance around the world has diverged in response to government stimulus measures and those exposed to the digital revolution. At the end of July, the S&P 500 index of larger US company shares pushed ahead of its starting level this year. Nasdaq powered on, forming more new highs. It has now delivered a 22% … Continue reading “The performance of world markets in the pandemic”

Five key investor questions on China answered

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, our team considers the relative prospects for China’s economic recovery and stock market resurgence. What the pandemic has highlighted is large differences in state capacity to manage this crisis. Will China experience a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery? We are still at the beginning of an enormous economic and social repair job. Governments … Continue reading “Five key investor questions on China answered”

Central banks continue to prop-up markets

The tsunami of money has been unprecedented and is the main reason equity markets have performed as they have. The stimulus measures have been at their largest in the US, where money growth has shot up to 25% for the year. In the Eurozone and the UK, it is a lively but more modest 10%. … Continue reading “Central banks continue to prop-up markets”

The beneficiaries of globalisation are right to be worried

The dispute between China and the US is likely to continue for many years as their clash of ideologies changes global trading patterns and supply chains. A senior American politician publicly derided one of the most important British companies on a scale we have not seen since attacks on BP following its oil spill in … Continue reading “The beneficiaries of globalisation are right to be worried”

Is retail investor surge cause for caution?

With a combination of resurgent markets, seemingly ebullient retail investors and a bleak economic outlook, it may be prudent to tread carefully. It’s an old investment cliché that when your taxi driver starts giving you share tips, it’s time to sell. As someone who has been on the receiving end of cabbie investment advice during … Continue reading “Is retail investor surge cause for caution?”

Washington wants to halt US investment in Chinese companies

The controversy over the initial stages of the Covid-19 infection in China has allowed a raft of measures to be put on the table to ensure the superpower advantage remains with the US.  Washington wants to starve Chinese companies of money, with investors required to consider “America first”. In a speech given in the White … Continue reading “Washington wants to halt US investment in Chinese companies”

Looking back at the markets through May

A selection of articles looking back through the markets last month. Global Market Review Pandemic continued to dominate markets The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would … Continue reading “Looking back at the markets through May”

Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors

Investors will need to be more agile than ever as Covid-19 reinforces many of the trends driving the world economy prior to the outbreak. “At the beginning of the plague, when there was now no more hope but that the whole city would be visited; when all that had friends or estates in the country … Continue reading “Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors”