The G7 solves nothing

The meeting of leaders over the weekend in Biarritz led to US President Donald Trump’s tweet suggesting there could be more trade talks with China after all. It was sufficient for a modest rally, after the tariff-induced sell off last week. The markets remain fixated by the twin stories of possible rate cuts to come, … Continue reading “The G7 solves nothing”

Trade deal leaves considerable uncertainty

President Trump decided to sit down with President Xi after all at the G20 Summit in Argentina. He had blown hot and cold about whether it was worthwhile to do so, and had threatened to carry on with his increases in tariffs on Chinese goods ahead of the meeting. Markets should be growing used to … Continue reading “Trade deal leaves considerable uncertainty”

How much damage will the trade war do?

Trade wars are not good news. Mr Trump’s imposition of tariffs on another $200bn of Chinese exports helped drag eastern markets down ahead of the event. Forecasters and pundits fear that the tariffs will curb exports and activity in Chinese factories, push up the price level a little in the US and adversely affect the … Continue reading “How much damage will the trade war do?”

A pleasant surprise from President Trump

It’s fashionable to write off President Trump. His healthcare reform has been slowed by strong opposition, his tax reform has been delayed, and now he is being investigated over his links with Russia and the removal of the FBI Head from office. The market has wobbled over these difficulties. Meanwhile President Trump has turned his … Continue reading “A pleasant surprise from President Trump”

Around the world and back again: has the globalisation theme turned full circle?

2008 may come eventually to be seen as the peak in the trend towards globalisation, the point at which the tide turned and the global spider’s web of supply chains and trade routes began to shrink. For several decades we have witnessed a continued expansion in the trade between economies around the world, crisscrossed by … Continue reading “Around the world and back again: has the globalisation theme turned full circle?”